Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans Preview (10/25/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

New Orleans will look to defend its home court against the Dallas Mavericks after losing Brandon Ingram to a head injury in its most recent bout. Below, I address the matchup, current injuries, updated odds, and projected starting lineups, so take a look!

Dallas Mavericks Vs. New Orleans Pelicans Betting Odds

The New Orleans Pelicans are six-point home dogs against the Dallas Mavericks in this explosive matchup. New Orleans has a few injuries that have significantly altered the line, including Brandon Ingram (head), Zion Williamson (hip), and Herb Jones (knee.)

Dallas Mavericks Vs. New Orleans Pelicans Prediction

The New Orleans Pelicans will be without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Herb Jones heading into this matchup. Williamson (hip) and Ingram (head) suffered injuries in the Pels’ last game against the Utah Jazz, who are surprising everyone with a 3-1 start to the season. Jones has been out since an injury in a preseason game.

It shouldn’t come as a shock, but the Pelicans are six-point home dogs without these three. New Orleans will likely roll out a lineup of C.J. McCollum, Devonte’ Graham, Trey Murphy III, Larry Nance Jr, and Jonas Valanciunas. You can expect McCollum and Valanciunas to do most of the heavy lifting on the offensive end of the floor.

I cover this in greater detail below, but this matchup is incredibly advantageous for the Dallas Mavericks. Luka Doncic will not have to worry about Herb Jones and Brandon Ingram on the perimeter or Zion Williamson in the interior. Doncic should tear this Pels team apart, even if they are trending in the right direction. Injuries are the worst part of the game.

Dallas holds an offensive rating of 124.1 through its first two games, and while it is still early, it has been clicking on all cylinders. I’m shocked that Jones, Ingram, and Zion have all been ruled out, and the line is still merely six points in favor of the Mavs. I will happily bet the Mavs against the spread and not look back, no matter the outcome.

Betting Trends

• Dallas was 28-23 ATS on the road in 2021-22 but is 1-0 on the road in 2022-23
• New Orleans was 23-21-1 in ATS at home in 2021-22 but is 0-1 at home in 2022-23
• New Orleans has a 3-0 over record in 2022-23

Key Matchups

The key matchup in this Western Conference battle will be between Luka Doncic and the New Orleans defense. The Pels have a defensive rating of 108.6 through their first three games but should continue to improve under head coach Willie Green, as evidenced by their post-All-Star break team stats. Check out my analysis of this key matchup of Doncic and New Orleans’ defense below!

Luka Doncic vs. Pelicans’ Defense

Luka Doncic has started the 2022-23 regular season red-hot, posting averages of 33.5 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists on nearly 48% shooting from the field. The entire Dallas Mavericks’ offense runs through Luka, which can be a bit concerning if he were to suffer an injury; however, if he stays healthy, Dallas could finish as one of the best teams in the Western Conference.

Doncic averaged roughly 31 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists in four games last season against the Pelicans but eviscerated them in February with a mindboggling 49/15/8 line in 38 minutes.

Without Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williams, the Pelicans do not have the personnel to defend Doncic successfully. Despite what appears to be a budding culture of hard-nosed basketball, there is little chance the Pels hold Luka to even reasonable stats. Advantage: Doncic.

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineup

PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr
SF: Reggie Bullock
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: JaVale McGee

New Orleans Pelicans Starting Lineups

PG: C.J. McCollum
SG: Devonte’ Graham
SF: Trey Murphy III
PF: Larry Nance Jr
C: Jonas Valanciunas

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks Injuries: Davis Bertans (Out), Frank Ntilikina (Out)

New Orleans Pelicans Injuries: Brandon Ingram (Out), Zion Williamson (Out), Herb Jones (Out)