Dayton vs. Wisconsin Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/23/2022)

Early on in the College Basketball season in the midst of non conference tournaments that help show teams how competitive they are before entering conference play, the Dayton Flyers face off against the Wisconsin Badgers in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament.  Wisconsin is undefeated early on in the season, but have not played in a super tough game just yet with their win against Stanford as their only Power-5 game thus far.  They are unranked this year after a season that had them featured as a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament before being upset by Iowa State in the Round of 32.  The loss of Johnny Davis surely is part of the reason they are unranked but the Badgers are always a tough team year in and year out and guys like Tyler Wahl and Chucky Hepburn will keep them in it all season.

Dayton started the season ranked and was 24th last week, but after a loss last week to UNLV they have dropped out of the top 25 in the AP poll.  A win against Wisconsin will surely help the Flyers’ chances of getting back up to where they were expected to be.  Let’s get into this game’s picks and predictions:

Dayton vs. Wisconsin Betting Odds

Disappointingly, there are no lines or books open just yet for this game as the game is still days away.  This game will be right down the line though I am assuming with a small spread margin so I still have my winner pick at least ready.  ESPN Analytics gives Dayton a 54.0 percent chance to win so it will certainly be a game that comes down the wire. 

These teams have very similar looking offenses so far.  Dayton is averaging 64.8 PPG with Wisconsin averaging 67 PPG in the early season.  They look similarly defensively as well with both allowing approximately 50-55 PPG from opposing teams.  The stats tell us we should be in for a super tight game down in the Bahamas for this one.  Dayton has three players currently averaging double digit scorers in DaRon Holmes II, Mustapha Amzil, and Kobe Elvis.  Tyler, Wahl, Chucky Hepburn and Jordan Davis have been leading the way for Wisconsin.

There is no over/under line posted just yet for the total, but given these two teams being defensively stealthy, I see this total being posted to a low total.

Dayton vs. Wisconsin Picks & Predictions

My pick: Wisconsin ML
I’m not sure who will be the favorite in this matchup when the lines are posted and it very well could be Dayton based on the analytics, but I am riding with Wisconsin in this game to get a big non conference win in Atlantis before entering Big Ten play.  Wisconsin has been overlooked as top teams in the Big Ten, but knowing them they are always in the hunt led by their defense and think they will show it in this one.  They will need to be sharper on the rebounding block. 

Dayton is currently averaging 2 more rebounds a game over the Badgers.  I think players like Jordan Davis will seriously step up for this Badgers team.  I like Dayton this year to certainly be a good mid-major team that will make the tournament but after their hiccup against UNLV, it raises questions on how they will play against more competitive power-5 teams.  Expect a very tight matchup in this one, but I think Greg Gard’s team will prevail and possibly make a run in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament.

Key Matchup

Chucky Hepburn vs. Dayton
Tyler Wahl has been the leading scorer for Wisconsin so far this season, but I think Chucky Hepburn is the true anchor for the Badgers this season.  He was named as a preseason Big Ten All-American and so far has lived up to the hype.  He is currently averaging 11 points per game but I expect those numbers to go up further into the season.  He is also the Badgers leader in assists so far with 3.7 a game.  If Hepburn can get his scoring going in this game, that will certainly help the Badgers win as they already have a defense to shut down opposing offenses.