Denny Carter’s 2018 Fantasy Football Kicker Guide
To seize on the production of kicker fantasy points — or the fundamental misunderstanding of what makes a viable kicker play — is to grab a competitive edge on your league mates who furiously flail between kickers, mad they have to fill a position that doesn’t bleed football’s masculine toxicity.
Each week, we find waiver wire kickers facing explicitly positive circumstances: their team is favored to win, they’re at home, their team has a high Vegas implied total. We’re always on the lookout for kickers who will benefit from the magic of positive game script, meaning said kicker is much more likely to attempt field goals in the second half of the game. And that’s what we want: attempts. Opportunity, after all, is the reigning despot of fantasy football.
According to the kicker haters, of whom there are many, kicker production is unpredictable — a crapshoot, a roll of the proverbial dice, a blindfolded dart throw from fifty yards out. They’re wrong, of course: kicker is among the most predictable positions in our little game. This ruins the kicker hater’s narrative and makes him irate online and in real life.
To stream the kicker spot is not to commit to using a new kicker every week, as the point of streaming a position is to eventually not stream the position. The hope is to stumble upon a Harrison Butker or Greg Zuerlein. Even if we don’t grab the undrafted kicker de jour, we know exactly what to look for in spotting available kickers who should have solid opportunity in a given week.
His truthers will point to yet another top-5 fantasy finish, but if you drafted Justin Tucker as one of the first kickers off the board in 2017, you started the season with four straight weeks of single-digit fantasy production. While Tucker got back on track and posted a blistering pace for the season’s final three months, stubbornly sticking by him over his disastrous first month may have cost you dearly. His 2017 campaign was a warning to anyone and everyone ready to draft a kicker before the last couple rounds. Taking Tucker — or other top kickers — a few rounds earlier than the last or penultimate round almost never pays dividends. Accuracy doesn’t matter. Long field goals don’t matter. Clutch kicks don’t matter.
Needs vary from fantasy team to fantasy team, and with some leagues limiting waiver wire transactions, you, dear fantasy footballer, might want to set it and forget it with the kicker position in 2018. I get it. I really do. That’s why I’ve highlighted six kickers who should be available in the last or second to last round of your draft, and could match the production of the game’s elite kickers. Why? Because of opportunity.
I’ve ranked the kickers in order of my re-draft preference.
1. Adam Vinatieri (IND)
The ancient one has finished as a top-6 fantasy kicker in all but one of Andrew Luck’s full seasons, benefiting from a Luck-driven offense that piles up yards and scores a lot of points (Indy was seventh in points per game in 2016, fifth in 2014, and tenth in 2013). As long as Luck is healthy and under center, Vinatieri profiles as an every-week fantasy starter whose field goal tries don’t fluctuate wildly between Colts wins and losses. Vinatieri in 2016 — Luck’s most recent (almost) full season — had multiple field goal tries in 13 of 16 games. That’s stability via opportunity.
2. Kai Forbath (MIN)
This, of course, is subject to change if Forbath loses the kicker battle raging at Vikings training camps (Daniel Carlson has a real shot to take over as Minnesota’s kicker). But whoever gets the Minnesota kicker job should be a target for kicker opportunity truthers: Forbath in 2017 was seventh in field goal attempts, posting 11 games with more than one field goal try. Forbath missed six kicks (posting a ho-hum 84.5 percent conversion rate) and still finished as a top-10 fantasy kicker. Minnesota’s high Vegas win total, the addition of Kirk Cousins, the return of Dalvin Cook, and a vicious defense could (should) make for kicker-friendly conditions and an offense that rarely faces outright negative game script.
3. Jake Elliott (PHI)
Last year’s Week 2 hero averaged a healthy 2.33 field goal attempts in Philadelphia victories last season. There’s little reason to think the Eagles will fall off in 2018, with or without the return of Carson Wentz. Elliott had 12 field goal tries in five Nick Foles starts last season — all games the Eagles won. Elliott is something of a forgotten fantasy entity after a midseason lull in which he had one field goal attempt in four straight games. While he’s not my highest priority as a final-round kicker choice, Elliott can clearly benefit from a top-notch Philly offense no matter who is under center to start the season.
4. Josh Lambo (JAC)
The one who proves conducive to excellent Rambo gifs on Twitter is slightly less appealing than the three kickers mentioned above if only because his opportunity fell off the face of the earth when Jacksonville sputtered at the tail end of 2017. In other words, Lambo is best reserved for when the Jaguars enter as favorites — preferably big home favorites. He notched 2.43 field goal attempts in Jaguars wins last season during his ten games with the team. Jacksonville’s safe offense, stellar defense, and superb special teams kept the Jags in almost every 2017 contest, meaning the team rarely passed on field goal chances late in ballgames. Lambo is viable if only because he’ll likely face a lot of neutral or positive game script.
5. Dustin Hopkins (WAS)
Alex Smith has a lengthy history of supporting valuable fantasy kickers. Smith’s offenses have supported top-7 fantasy kickers in each of the past three NFL seasons, even turning no-name Harrison Butker into a household fantasy football name in 2017. Washington’d field goal tries dropped dramatically from 2016 to 2017 because, well, the team sucked in 2017 and was rarely in position to settle for field goals in the fourth quarter. Hopkins, however, is one year removed from leading the NFL in field goal attempts. Hopkins posted just three games with fewer than two field goal attempts in 2016. He could be the next kicker to produce thanks to Smith’s excellent game managing, or whatever the pundits call it.
6. Ryan Succop (TEN)
Succop, who attempted more field goals than all but two kickers in 2017, has encouraging win-loss splits over his past couple seasons in Tennessee. Last year he averaged 2.2 field goal tries in Titans losses, as the team seemed content to kick field goals while trailing. Is that dumb? Maybe. Will we as fantasy players take it? We will. Don’t let Succop’s lackluster career field goal rate (83.3 percent) scare you off the veteran kicker of the pigskin. There’s good reason to think the Titans’ new offensive system will produce more yards, and with it, more points in 2018. Exotic smashmouth is dead. Long live exotic smashmouth.