The Denver Broncos face the Buffalo Bills in a fascinating Monday Night Football matchup (11/13/23). In this article, find a breakdown of the game and the latest betting odds. In addition, get our best bet which is the Broncos +7.5.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
The Broncos had a rough 0-3 start to the Sean Payton era. But they beat the Chiefs handily prior to their bye week, and they’ll look to continue to turn things around here on the road against a struggling Bills team. Buffalo is on an uninspiring 2-3 straight up and 0-5 ATS run, and I’m not positive we’ve yet hit the bottom of the market on this team.
Josh Allen has had an excellent season, ranking top five in PFF passing grades (88) and adjusted completion rate (79.1%). He’s also reduced a 4.2% turnover-worthy play rate last year to a 2.1% clip this season. The Bills have seen Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir emerge on their way to the second-ranked offense by DVOA.
The issue has been on the other side of the ball where the Bills are struggling on defense. Buffalo ranks 30th in defensive EPA over the last five weeks as injuries have derailed what looked like one of the strongest defenses in the league early this season. Defensive lineman DaQuan Jones, linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White remain out.
Russell Wilson should have success against this weakened Bills defense. Wilson is quietly playing solid football – his 16 passing touchdowns already equal the number he had all of last season – and his 101.8 passer rating ranks fifth in the NFL It took a few weeks, but Payton’s offense is starting to take shape in Denver, especially with running back Javonte Williams getting healthier each week.
Denver’s defense, meanwhile, is trending up after a dreadful start to the year. Over the past month, they rank 13th in defensive EPA, and Vance Joseph has turned around what had been a sieve in the early going. The Broncos have the best red-zone defense in the NFL over the past five weeks, allowing a touchdown on just three of 16 opponent trips including one of eight across two games against the Chiefs.
Sean Payton is 10-3 straight up in his last 13 games coming off a bye week. I believe the Broncos are live to get the outright upset here. Getting this team on a spread over a touchdown is tremendous value here as I believe early season results are skewing the reality of where these teams are at currently.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction: Broncos +7.5
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Best Odds
The spread for this game currently has the Bills favored by 7.5 or 8 points depending on your sportsbook, which is right in the teaser zone. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this line climb leading up to kickoff as teaser protection for the sportsbooks. The over/under sits at 47 points currently, leading to an implied score of around 27-20.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Key Injuries
After dealing with a litany of defensive injuries to start the season, the Broncos have been progressively healthier on that end. The Bills haven’t been as fortunate, and the continued IR stints for DL DaQuan Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre’Davious White have hurt them. Tight end Dawson Knox also remains on IR.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Key Matchups
The Broncos have relied on some breakout performances to help get their season back on track, which sets up for an intriguing matchup against the Bills. Let’s dive into some of the key matchups in this Monday Night Football game.
Javonte Williams vs. Bills’ Run Defense
The Broncos prioritized rebuilding their offensive line over the offseason, and it has paid off as they’re eighth in adjusted line yards and second in run block win rate. That sets up very nicely against a Bills defense that has had a ton of issues defending the run lately due to their injuries on that end.
After an ACL injury ended last season early, Javonte Williams has taken some time to get back to full health, but it seems to be all systems go for him now. He has 80+ rushing yards in two straight games and he carried the ball a whopping 27 times against the Chiefs prior to the bye week, indicating his full health. He could be in for a huge game here.
This wasn’t even Javonte Williams’ most impressive run (it came on his very next play).
Best game so far.
15-82 rushing, 3-14 (4) receiving
Had a touchdown on the very first drive called back for OL holding.
Should pay off down the stretch for fantasy.
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) October 23, 2023
Stefon Diggs vs. Patrick Surtain II
While the Broncos’ defense had a lot of issues to start the season, All Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II has remained steady as one of the best in the NFL at his position. Surtain has five pass breakups and an interception through eight games, and he’ll be matched up with Stefon Diggs, one of the best receivers in the NFL, here.
Diggs had six catches for 86 yards and a score against the Bengals, and he’s averaging 2.45 yards per route run this season, which is his highest mark since his first season in Buffalo. When Diggs last faced the Broncos in 2020, he caught 11 passes for 147 yards.
Stefon Diggs is built different! 😤 pic.twitter.com/ETX4EgKc41
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 6, 2023