Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Picks, & Predictions (01/1/23)
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The Broncos made a huge change after last week’s blowout loss to the Rams, firing coach Nathaniel Hackett after only 15 games. Will the shakeup produce immediate results? Denver goes into Kansas City as a major underdog against the Chiefs, who are still hoping to earn the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Broncos have lost 14 consecutive games against the Chiefs coming into this game.
Let’s make predictions, dive into the depth charts, and take a look at the odds ahead of this New Year’s Day matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
The Chiefs enter as 12.5-point home favorites, sitting at -730 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 45 points.
Kansas City is a big-time favorite, though it’s a little jarring that the line isn’t even larger after the Chiefs just defeated the Seahawks by 14 at home. Oddsmakers may be giving some thought to the idea of a more competitive showing by the Broncos after firing Hackett, and it’s worth considering that the Broncos only lost by six when they faced the Chiefs last month.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
I feel more comfortable rolling with Broncos +12.5 after the coaching change. We’ve seen year after year how a change like that can energize a team, even if it’s only temporary. The Colts saw an immediate impact in the first week of Jeff Saturday’s stint, and the Panthers have played much better football without Matt Rhule.
I would expect the Broncos’ defense to come in with confidence after producing a handful of turnovers against the Chiefs the first time around, and the offense could be more respectable minus Hackett against a shaky Kansas City secondary.
I have no expectations of the Broncos winning this game, but with the Chiefs potentially overlooking this team (who can blame them?), a closer than expected matchup could be in the cards.
Betting Trends
The Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
The Chiefs are 8-22-1 ATS against their last 31 AFC opponents. Watch for closer than expected games from Kansas City.
The over is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games against AFC West opponents.
Key Injuries
Denver Broncos Injuries: OLB Randy Gregory is set to miss Week 17 due to a suspension. TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring) is questionable. DE Dre’Mont Jones (hip) is out for the season.
Kansas City Chiefs Injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) isn’t expected to return in Week 17. WR Mecole Hardman (abdomen) is trending toward a return this weekend.
Key Matchups
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Broncos vs. Chiefs below.
Chiefs Pass-Rush vs. Broncos Offensive Line
The Chiefs don’t have an intimidating pass-rush attack, but they managed five sacks against the Broncos’ leaky offensive line the last time these two teams met. It’ll be very interesting to see how Denver’s line responds after Brett Rypien called out Dalton Risner and others on the sideline on Christmas.
A better job protecting Russell Wilson should lead to better results early on. Wilson had a solid game last time he faced the Chiefs, but he likely can’t rely on his defense for as many red zone opportunities this time around.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Broncos Defense
Mahomes vs. the secondary might be the more appropriate matchup, but it was LB Josey Jewell who intercepted him twice in December. The Broncos’ defense is talented from top to bottom and showed it when they last faced Kansas City.
The Chiefs can win this game easily if Mahomes cuts back on the turnovers. If those issues persist, which is a possibility against a defense that might have new life this week, Mahomes risks keeping the Broncos in the game.
Denver Broncos Depth Chart
QB: Russell Wilson
RB1: Latavius Murray
RB2: Marlon Mack
RB3: Chase Edmonds
LWR: Courtland Sutton
RWR: Jerry Jeudy
SWR: Jalen Virgil
TE1: Albert Okwuegbunam
Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB1: Isiah Pacheco
RB2: Jerick McKinnon
LWR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
RWR: Kadarius Toney
SWR: JuJu Smith-Schuster
TE1: Travis Kelce
