Denver Broncos vs LA Rams Preview (12/25/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

Christmas is finally here, and it couldn’t bring more disappointment in an NFL matchup if it tried. While schedule makers had good intentions when they thought this would be Stafford vs revitalized Russell Wilson, that will not be the case as Wilson’s production has plummeted and Stafford is out with an injury. In a battle of two of the biggest let downs in football, who will come out on top on Christmas day?

Denver Broncos vs LA Rams Betting Odds

As for who will win, oddsmakers had this as a near pick’em by opening the Rams as a -1 favorite on the look ahead. Bettors have shifted this towards the Broncos favor with Denver currently sitting as a -3 as of writing. This number has drastically shifted throughout the year as both teams amassed injuries as well as Denver’s consistency woes. This game might be so ugly that it will be a beautiful trainwreck to watch.

As for the total, oddsmakers thought points would come at a premium as the look ahead was set at 42. Reopening at 38.5, Bettors have been quick to continue to pounce on the under by taking it to as low as 36.5 in some shops. Both offenses have gone through drastic changes while still both fielding a respectable defense. Throw in consistency issues in scoring production in Finishing Drives and we potentially have an all-time clunker.

Denver Broncos vs LA Rams Prediction

The Pick: Under 36.5

Even with the steam taking this to a dangerous low, I still love this current under for a small wager. While you would imagine getting your starting quarterback back from injury would help, Russell Wilson has shown zero ability to find success under center this year. This is in large part of his lack of awareness in a shrinking pocket as well as very questionable decision making.

Even against a particularly weak secondary, one that ranks well below average in Def Pass DVOA, I struggle to believe Russell Wilson will magically be able to turn it around in his return. The Rams defensive line have excelled at generating pressure to the backfield, the main downfall to any of Russell Wilson’s success.

Worse yet for the Broncos, the Rams excel at stopping the run as one of the best Def Rush DVOA’s in football. While not at an elite rate by any means, the Broncos run game has been one of the lone success stories for the offense as recently acquired Latavius Murray ran wild in his last game out against the Cardinals. Even in Aaron Donald’s absence, the Rams have excelled at plugging the gaps and not allowing opposing runners to get to the second level.

Betting Trends

• Under is 4-1 in their last five matchups
• Under is 34-16-1 un Broncos last 51 games following a SU win
• Under is 8-1 in the Rams last nine games vs a home team with a losing road record

Key Injuries

Denver Broncos Injuries: Dakota Allen (O), Kendall Hinton (Q), Courtland Sutton (Q), Mike Boone (O), Russell Wilson (P)

LA Rams Injuries: Matthew Stafford (O), Cooper Kupp (O)

Key Matchups

Will Baker Mayfield be able to find any sort of offensive success against the Broncos defense?

Baker Mayfield vs Broncos secondary

While one team struggling is nice for the under, both struggling would all but seal it. That is exactly what may be in store as the Mayfield experiment has gone poorly, sans a fluke win against the laughable Raiders.

He is due to struggle once again as the Broncos defense have been consistent all year in shutting down opposing offensive production. This is a unit that ranks top-5 in Overall Def DVOA, as well as top of the league in defending the pass.

Even when weak against defending the run, the Rams have struggled to find any rush success in their carousel of running backs this season. Should they opt to go run heavy to try and exploit the weak rush defense, that will run the clock and give our under tickets a better chance at cashing.

Verdict

Take the under at no lower than 35 for a small wager in what may be one of the ugliest games of the year.

Denver Broncos Depth Chart

QB: Russell Wilson
RB1: Latavius Murray
RB2: Marlon Mack
LWR: Courtland Sutton
RWR: Jerry Jeudy
SWR: Jalen Virgil
TE1: Albert Okuegbunam

LA Rams Depth Chart

QB: Baker Mayfield
RB1: Cam Akers
RB2: Kyren Williams
LWR: Van Jefferson
RWR: Tutu Atwell
SWR: Brandon Powell
TE1: Tyler Higbee