Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots Matchup Preview (10/18/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
This was originally a Week 5 game and now has been pushed back to Week 6. This bodes well for both teams as now they will be able to get some bigger names back. Drew Lock and Cam Newton are both expected to play and that wasn’t a for sure thing last week. Both teams essentially had their bye week already and will be looking to build on two records that both teams were not hoping for a few weeks into the season. This game looks to be a potentially low scoring matchup as both defenses are in good shape and offensively we have seen them struggle at times this season. Oddsmakers of course are going to favor New England heavily here because they are at home against a team they should beat, but nine points are very high. For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Denver Broncos at New England Patriots Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, October 18th, 2020
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
TV Coverage: CBS
Broncos vs. Patriots Live Stream
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Denver Broncos: Noah Fant (Q), KJ Hamler (O), Drew Lock (Q), Davontae Harris (Q), Jeremiah Attaochu (Q)
New England Patriots: Julian Edelman (Q), Isaiah Wynn (Q), Adam Butler (Q), Shaq Mason (Q), Jermaine Eluemunor (Q), Stephon Gilmore (O)
Denver Broncos Analysis
The Broncos put up 37 points last week with Brett Rypien making his first start in the NFL. Melvin Gordon rushed for 107 yards and also tallied two touchdowns. It was no surprise to see Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy lead the way after Courtland Sutton was done for the season but this week they will likely be without Noah Fant as well. They will take on a much better defense so I wouldn’t get my hopes up for 30+ games, let alone even 20+. I do expect Patrick and Jeudy to be targeted more and the potential absence of Stephon Gilmore will give them a small bump but this is still a solid secondary even without him.
Denver has had a rocky start this season and the injuries haven’t helped. This was an offense many were excited to see but 20.5 points per game so far this season can be chalked up to those injuries. Denver’s rushing attack hasn’t been effective outside of last week, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt and averaging just 92.5 rushing yards as a team. However, Denver will get Phillip Lindsay back this week which will certainly help. The Denver run defense isn’t too shabby allowing 4.2 yards per carry this season and 109 yards per game. They rank 9th in DVOA against the run this season. Against the pass they rank 15th, and this might not be believable after last weeks game at times, but the Jets also put up a defensive touchdown. This should be more of a defensive battle this week.
Denver Broncos Depth Chart
New England Patriots Analysis
Cam Newton is due back this week. He has completed 68% of his passes for 714 yards and two scores but has done damage on the ground with 149 yards and 4 scores. Damien Harris led the way after Sony Michel was placed on IR. He had 100 yards on 17 carries, but we still saw a lot of Rex Burkhead and James White. Harris actually didn’t see that high of a snap count despite rushing for 100 yards. He was just very productive. Damiere Byrd and James White combined for eight targets. It was an unappealing game to watch for the Patriots offense and that could be the case again this week.
It has been an up and down start to the year for the Patriots as they are 2-2 and have scored 24.3 points per game this season but have allowed 23 per game. They are not passing a ton, and over the last two weeks, the passing offense has been rather poor with Cam Newton in or not. We expected this team to rush the ball a ton and they are. They have 140 attempts and are averaging 179.8 rushing yards per game this season. However, teams have been able to run against them a bit with 4.4 yards per carry and opposing teams are also averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. The defense was expected to take a small step back just due to the offseason opt-outs and not being able to duplicate historic numbers from last season. They will have a slightly easier task this week given all of the Broncos injuries and missing multiple playmakers on the offensive side.
New England Patriots Depth Chart
Betting Corner: Patriots -9
Spread: NE -9
Moneyline: DEN +300 / NE -360
At the moment the Patriots are nine-point favorites and the over/under is set at 45.5. This might change given this is a weird game that was pushed back a week. Some books have it off right now as they might be waiting for some news we are not aware of. Last week the under was at 47.5 before it got pushed back and the Patriots were -11. This is a bit odd given there was a good chance Stephon Gilmore and Cam Newton were going to miss it last week and Drew Lock was a 50/50 shot to play. These new numbers might be adjusted come tomorrow, if so, I will adjust within the article. I do like the under still, even at 45.5. I can’t see a ton of offense in this one on either side. I know Denver allowed big points to the Jets but the defense was put in bad spots all night and the offense also caused some points to be scored.
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Daily Fantasy Picks
This is not really a game to get much exposure to. Even with both quarterbacks returning to the starting lineup, I am not fond of using either of them on a week where there a handful of better options. I’d be looking at the running backs but Philip Lindsay being back could cut into Melvin Gordon’s upside and his price tag is up a tad from where it was before. The Patriots are just using three running backs that make them all unappealing options. James White on DK remains an option just because he has the chance to get to value with some receiving and PPR stats. Julian Edelman was non-existent last week. N’Keal Harry is intriguing on a smaller slate. But it is just hard to see any real upside with these names here. Jerry Jeudy has a tough matchup and the same goes for Tim Patrick. Both have evolved in this offense due to the absence of Courtland Sutton and while the volume could be there, I can’t really play them over all the other options on this slate.