Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics Preview (11/11/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

After sneaking away with a win against the Indiana Pacers, the Denver Nuggets will head east to Boston to continue their road trip and battle with the Celtics. Below, I go over the projected starting lineups, current betting odds, applicable injuries, and which team I think will win in this battle between two heavyweights!

Denver Nuggets Vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

Denver is a four-point road dog against the Boston Celtics, who are starting to resemble the team they were toward the end of last season! Both teams have won four-straight basketball games; one of those streaks will end on Friday night. Boston still doesn’t have Robert Williams III or Danilo Gallinari available to suit up and will also be without Malcolm Brogdon due to a hamstring injury. On the other hand, Denver won’t have Collin Gillespie or Ish Smith; however, neither player has cracked the rotation anyway.

Denver Nuggets Vs. Boston Celtics Prediction

Boston hasn’t been quite as dominant on the defensive end of the floor as it was last season; however, it doesn’t exactly need to be, at least right now. It can live with being slightly less dominant on defense because it ranks first in offensive efficiency, second in eFG% (effective field goal percentage), and fourth in 3P% (three-point percentage.)

The smaller lineups that Boston has been rolling out in the absence of Robert Williams III have clicked offensively. The ball movement is undeniably better than last season when sometimes, it could get stuck in one or two players’ hands.

Denver has had a similar story in terms of offensive output. With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr returning from injury this season, the Nuggets have had no issues with scoring on offense. Porter has been shooting the lights out of the ball, helping Denver become the best three-point shooting team in the NBA by nearly two percent. The scariest part is that Jamal Murray hasn’t even shot the ball that well yet. Denver will run through the Western Conference when he returns to full form.

The only problem with the brand of basketball that the Nuggets are currently playing is that when they go up against an offense that has been as efficient as Boston, they are at an immediate disadvantage. It’s concerning enough that I’m going to fade them against the C’s, who have cleaned up some of the early-season defensive struggles.

Betting Trends

• Denver is 2-5 ATS on the road in 2022-23
• Boston is 3-2 ATS at home in 2022-23
• The combined over record of these two teams is 13-9 in 2022-23

Key Matchups

Plenty of key matchups could be highlighted in this one, but the most crucial matchup belongs to Denver’s three-point shooting and Boston’s perimeter defense. My analysis below covers which team I think will have the advantage, so take a look.

Denver’s Three-Point Shooting vs. Boston’s Perimeter Defense

Denver is the league’s best three-point shooting team through the first 11 games of its season, and the next closest team is not all that close; there’s a two-percent difference between the Nuggets and Cleveland.

Despite being the league’s best defense last year, Boston struggled on that end of the floor in the first few games of the 2022-23 regular season. Right now, the C’s are merely 14th in opponent 3P%, but they have been better recently, only allowing 31.7% from deep to opponents in their past three games. I like Boston to hold Denver to mid-30% shooting from behind the arc in this one, which would be well below the Nuggets’ season average. Advantage: Boston’s Perimeter Defense.

Denver Nuggets Starting Lineup

PG: Jamal Murray
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF: Michael Porter Jr
PF: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Jokic

Boston Celtics Starting Lineups

PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Derrick White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets Injuries: Collin Gillespie (Out), Ish Smith (Out)

Boston Celtics Injuries: Robert Williams III (Out), Danilo Gallinari (Out), Malcolm Brogdon (Out)