Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (11/18/22)

While I was relatively surprised by how competitive the Nuggets looked without Jokic in their last game out against the Knicks, their late lead was blown when the Knicks offense locked in and abused the size mismatch by attacking the rim. The Nuggets now face a familiar situation against the Mavericks as Jokic is still out with Covid protocols.

Denver Nuggets Vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

With Jokic and other key contributors still out, the Nuggets opened as sizable underdogs and the number has climbed since. Opening at +7, the number now sits at +9 as the Mavericks have massive advantages on offense against a very depleted Nuggets squad.

As for the total, this is expected to be a low scoring affair as the number opened at 217 and has now dipped to 215.5 as of writing. This is in large part of the question marks surrounding the Nuggets ability to contribute to the total as the offensive identity takes a massive change for the worst without their star player whose floor stretching ability is bar none.

Denver Nuggets Vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction

The Pick: Under 215.5

Missing out on the opening spread stinks, especially since it already shot through the key number of -8. Instead, I’m shifting my focus towards the total. With huge defensive advantages against the limited Nuggets offense and blow out potential written all over it, I’m taking the under 215.5 and would play this no lower than 214. 

It was apparent the Nuggets offensive identity was drastically less efficient without Jokic’s floor stretching ability and presence down low, a loss that was too much to overcome against a mediocre Knicks team. Without Jokic, opposing defenses can afford to stretch out the defense even more and smother the perimeter which limits the quality of three point looks the Nuggets get. 

This plays into the Mavericks hands as they are built to limit the three. They sacrifice inside looks by stretching out to the perimeter and relying on switches to keep a hand in the opponent’s face on the outside, letting you drive to take a less quality mid-range. A staple of today’s type of game.

Better yet for the Mavericks, their weakness of a lack of big man presence down low is negated with Jokic sitting out and potentially not having Aaron Gordon who is questionable once again. With not being able to take advantage of post looks, the Nuggets offense turns one dimensional and a scheme that the Mavericks are built to stop.

Betting Trends

  • Nuggets are 3-6 ATS on the road in 2022-23
  • Mavericks are 1-7-1 ATS at home in 2022-23
  • Mavericks are 8-5 SU as a favorite in 2022-23

Key Matchups

With a lack of big bodies, how does the Nuggets matchup against Luka? Who picks up the scoring production without Jamal Murray for the Nuggets?

Luka Doncic vs Nuggets size mismatch

While the Nuggets will be hurting down low with a lack of size, they will also be in trouble with being unable to put a big body on Luka. That’s who Aaron Gordon was expected to guard, especially on switches, and his injury is worth monitoring leading up to tip off.

Without Gordon, the Nuggets lack an athletic big man who is capable of limiting Luka’s patented drives that sucks in the defense to open up the Mavs looks from deep. Now the Nuggets need to go all in on defending his drives with multiple bodies which only spells trouble for their floor stretching abilities.

Nuggets outside shooting vs Maverick’s perimeter defense

With Murray out, the Nuggets are down another key scorer that is capable of burning a defense in every dimension. While Murray has yet to round back into form, it’s still another key loss for the Nuggets offense.

Now the perimeter shooting is more important than ever as the Nuggets scheme becomes a lot more one dimensional. While KCP and Michael Porter are more than capable of burning the Mavericks from deep, their quality of looks diminishes as the Mavericks specialize in smothering the perimeter.

Verdict

Take the under in what may be a routing by the Mavericks with advantages on both sides of the court.

Denver Nuggets Starting Lineup

PG: Bones Hyland

SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF: Michael Porter

PF: JaMychal Green

C: DeAndre Jordan

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineups

PG: Luka Doncic

SG: Spencer Dinwiddie

SF: Reggie Bullock

PF: Dorian Finney-Smith

C: Dwight Powell

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets Injuries: Ish Smith (D), Jamal Murray (O), Aaron Gordon (Q), Nikola Jokic (O)

Dallas Mavericks Injuries: Reggie Bullock (Q), JaVale McGee (P), Maxi Kleber (O)

Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. Residing in Northern MI his whole life, he graduated from GVSU with a Bachelors in Finance but quickly set his sights on the sports betting industry. He started his career contributing for The Action Network, covering NCAAF/NCAAB/and NFL. Born into Detroit Lions fandom, he knows nothing but pain and false optimism while repetitively telling himself this is our year. That is until they win the Super Bowl this year.

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