Get Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers player prop picks & odds for the (01/16/24) matchup.
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Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers Player Prop Picks
Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers tips off this Tuesday at 7:30pm EST in Philadelphia Pennsylvania as a home game for the 76ers. The Nuggets are currently a +1.5 underdog and +100 on the moneyline while the total is set at 230. Expect a battle between two MVPs in Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic while Michael Porter Jr struggles to stretch the defense, all giving value as player props for this Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers matchup.
Joel Embiid Over 32.5 Points
After seemingly ducking Nikola Jokic in years past, Joel Embiid is now slated to suit up and duke it out with the former MVP in what is set to be a thrilling contest. Embiid finally broke through the MVP window last year, now looking to make it two in a row by putting together a masterful performance against Jokic who is currently the odds-n favorite to win the award.
Embiid hasn’t just been playing great as of late, he’s been utterly dominant as having gone for at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in 16 straight games. He’s showing flashes of an old Shaq, abusing smaller defenders with a relentless push towards the basket. Unlike Shaq, when Embiid is fouled, he capitalizes on his free throws to continue the scoring onslaught by averaging 88.5% from the charity stripe.
Better yet for Embiid’s chances to dominate tonight, Nikola Jokic and key Nuggets players are all dealing with injuries. Heading into this contest, the whole Nuggets starting five is listed as “day to day”. Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon have since been upgraded to probable, but the point remains that they are not a team at full strength. Expect Embiid to capitalize on a hobbled Nuggets unit, putting together another MVP performance on primetime.
Joel Embiid Over 10.5 Rebounds
Much like Embiid’s ability to score at a high rate against an injury riddled Nuggets interior, he will also be in a position to dominate on the boards. This will come in the form of second chance opportunities with near misses down low, as well as using his size to stretch out Jokic and crash the board on the defensive end after a miss.
He averages 11.7 rebounds per game this season, hauling in at least ten boards in 16 straight contests. The 76ers also run relatively small at the one through four positions, slotting Tobias Harris as the power forward. That gives Embiid more opportunities to haul in rebounds, playing as their true big while anchoring the paint.
Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists
With Jokic playing at less than 100% and drawing a tough matchup against a healthy Embiid, expect Nikola to rely heavier on his passing in order to keep the Nuggets within scoring pace. He’s put together another magical passing season so far this year, averaging an astonishing 9.3 assists per game as the Nuggets center.
Several NFL teams could use Nikola Jokic pic.twitter.com/4xg1kbThoa
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) January 11, 2024
His assists prop becomes even more enticing should the 76ers throw doubles when Jokic is on the block. While Embiid is a capable defender in his own right, he does have a history of shying away from contact in order to avoid foul trouble. Should the 76ers throw help side coverage, expect Embiid to punish them by cross court passing to an open shooter.
This prop is heavily predicated on the Nuggets guards being able to play as Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Michael Porter Jr are all listed as questionable. This prop is also anywhere from 8.5 to 9.5, making it vital to have as many books as you can get in order to line shop and get the best available number.
Michael Porter Jr Under 2.5 Threes Made
While betting overs on Michael Porter Jr three-point props have been a profitable endeavor this year, the small forward draws a tough contest this time around which shows value towards his under. The 76ers have been the best team in the NBA at covering the perimeter, ranking first in the league by holding offenses to just 33.7%.
They have been even more dominant in their last three contests, dipping their opposing three-point percentage to as low as 28.3&. Michael Porter Jr has also been more aggressive as of late, utilizing gaps in opposing defenses to his benefit by crashing the lane and driving to the rim. With the 76ers excelling at covering the outside, expect Porter Jr to cut more off the ball which limits the three-point attempts as well.