Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Game 6: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (5/11/23)

The Denver Nuggets are visiting the Phoenix Suns in a big Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Nuggets are coming off a blowout win against the Suns in Denver at Game 5. My prediction is that the Phoenix Suns cover the 3.5-point spread. The Suns are back at home and should play much better after how they looked on the road. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this game!

Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction

The Phoenix Suns have been inconsistent, but have played much better at home than on the road in the playoffs so far.

Devin Booker makes the Suns go and that’s been on full display these playoffs with everything he’s done to fill the stat sheet. Booker is leading the NBA in playoff scoring, averaging 36 PPG and is also leading the Suns in steals at 1.8 per game. Kevin Durant is up next as part of their dynamic duo. Durant averages 30 PPG and leads the team in blocks at 1.4 per game. Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul are up next in production. Ayton averages 13 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 10 per game. Jock Landale might see more minutes with Ayton questionable. Chris Paul averages 12 PPG and leads the team in 7 assists per game. Terrence Ross and Cameron Payne will see more time too with Chris Paul confirmed out.

The Suns have been very hot on offense this postseason. They are 3rd in offensive rating at 117.6, 5th in scoring at 115.6 PPG, and in field goal percentage at 49.8%. They are also 3rd in blocks at 5.7 per game.

On the other side, the Denver Nuggets have looked like the most complete team in the NBA so far, with no signs of slowing down.

Nikola Jokic has been great so far in the postseason and has looked like an MVP-caliber player. He leads the Nuggets in scoring at 31 PPG, in rebounding at 13 per game, in assists at 9.5 per game, and in blocks at 1 per game. Jamal Murray also averages 26 PPG and has been the perfect complement to Jokic. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon round out the big four for the Nuggets. Porter Jr. averages 15 PPG and Gordon averages 14 PPG. These four have been huge for the Nuggets in the postseason and are giant keys for the Nuggets to get farther in the postseason.

The Nuggets have been very balanced across the board in the postseason. They are 2nd in offensive rating at 117.8, 3rd in field goal percentage at 48.5%, and are first in scoring differential at +7.6. They’re also 6th in points allowed at 107.3 PPG and 6th in rebounding at 44.7 per game.

The Suns are the play in this game because the game is in Phoenix. This game should be close, but the Suns should win and cover late thanks to home court and Booker and Durant.

Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

The Phoenix Suns are 3.5-point home favorites against the Denver Nuggets and are at -165 on the money line. The over/under is also at 226. The Phoenix Suns being favored makes sense because they’ve played very well at home in the postseason compared to the road. The over/under also makes sense because each team has shown they can really score in the postseason. This spread could move a bit more if Chris Paul ends up playing because he’s questionable right now and will be a game-time decision for the Suns in Game 6.

Betting Trends

Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Key Matchups

Can Kentavious Caldwell-Pope matchup with Devin Booker? Can Deandre Ayton matchup with Nikola Jokic

Devin Booker vs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Devin Booker has been incredible this postseason. He averages 36 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds per game. He’ll be matched up against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who averages 9.5 points, 1.5 assists, and 3 rebounds per game. Pope has been very solid, but Booker is a difference-maker and is why the Suns should cover this spread at home.

Nikola Jokic vs. Deandre Ayton

Nikola Jokic is playing great as the MVP runner-up. He averages 31 points, 9.5 assists, and 13 rebounds per game. He’ll be matched up against Deandre Ayton, assuming he plays, who averages 13 points, 1 assist, and 10 rebounds per game. Ayton has been solid, but has been no match for Jokic in this series. The Suns could overcome it still at home.

Denver Nuggets Starting Lineup

PG: Jamal Murray
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF: Michael Porter Jr.
PF: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Jokic

Phoenix Suns Starting Lineups

PG: Cameron Payne
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Josh Okogie
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Deandre Ayton

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets Injuries: None

Phoenix Suns Injuries: PG Chris Paul (Groin) O, C Deandre Ayton (Rib) Q