Get Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz player prop picks & odds for the (1/10/24) matchup.
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Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz Player Prop Picks
Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz tips off this Wednesday at 10:00pm EST in Salt Lake City Utah as a home game for the Jazz. The Nuggets are currently a -6.5 favorite with -258 odds on the moneyline. The total, meanwhile, is set at 238. Expect a big game from the former MVP Nikola Jokic while Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr give him support, all giving value as player props for this Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz matchup.
Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists
Even during one of the most dominant stretches in recent NBA history, Nikola Jokic is still somehow flying under the radar as a potential MVP. A mixture of voter fatigue and Joel Embiid playing out of his mind have somehow masked Jokic, yet his dominance still carries on. He’s a walking triple double as the team’s leading force on offense, now in a position to shred the Jazz defense with his vision.
Not only is Jokic the best passing big man in NBA history, but he does so in an offense that thrives in creating separation from his passing to get high quality shot attempts. The Jazz have been prone to getting shredded by teams who excel with their passing, surrendering 28.4 assists per game.
This is in large part of the Jazz makeup when on the court, using two hybrid big men with another forward and two guards. Their length alone will not be enough to stop Jokic, having to throw double teams at a consistent rate to make up for the lack of size. The Jazz are expected to send doubles his way which should create gaps that Jokic is more than capable of exploiting.
Nikola Jokic Over 10.5 Rebounds
Not only will the size advantage play towards Jokic’s vision, but he will also be in a position to dominate the boards. He’s averaging 13 rebounds per game, now being in a position to chase after his own shots for high quality opportunities, let alone have a sizable advantage on opposite side boards from cross court shooting chances.
This prop is also an example of why you should have as many sportsbooks as you can get your hands on in order to line shop for the best possible number. This is already a juiced prop towards the over, sitting as high as -165 and as low as -135. That is a $30 difference for a $100 bettor, saving on the juice by being able to take the best available odds.
Jamal Murray Over 23.5 Points
With Nikola Jokic scoring pace expected to take a slight hit, it will be up to Jamal Murray and company to carry the brunt of the scoring production. Murray has been putting together another productive year as the scoring guard, averaging 20.6 points per game while playing off of Jokic and taking opposing defenders off the dribble as well.
Jamal Murray fakes the defense for 24 PTS in the 1H 😲
— NBA (@NBA) January 8, 2024
With the Jazz playing relatively undersized, they need to throw more defensive attention towards Jokic as previously stated. That creates gaps in the middle of the court, giving Murray the chance to play off of Jokic and get high quality shot attempts in the mid-range as well as open lanes to the rim for high quality scoring opportunities.
Not only does this leave Utah exposed, but they are already a poor defense to begin with. They rank 23rd in Defensive Efficiency per TeamRankings, now having to find success in a pinch against one of the best offenses in basketball. Expect the Nuggets to capitalize on the gaps in coverage, giving players like Murray a high chance for success.
Michael Porter Jr Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made
Jamal Murray won’t be the only instant benefactor from gaps in coverage as Michael Porter Jr will find himself with high quality three-point opportunities as well. Jokic is capable of hitting his shooters at any area of the court, giving players like Michael Porter Jr the opportunity to exploit the gaps and get an open knockdown three.
Defending the three has been an issue for the Jazz, allowing opposing offenses to shoot 37.4 percent from deep. That is the 19th worst rate in the league, and the Nuggets are not expected to make their jobs any easier given they are one of the best facilitating teams in the NBA. There is a possibility that Porter Jr continues to be aggressive and pursue the rim instead with open lanes to the basket, yet even a slightly diminished number of attempts will still be enough for him to potentially clear this mark.
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