Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Baltimore Maryland as a home game for the Ravens. The Lions are currently a +3 underdog and +135 on the moneyline while the total is set at 43. Read on for more Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens best bets and predictions as defense takes center stage to help cash the under.
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction & Best Bet
The Detroit Lions hype train has continued to roll down the tracks after an impressive road win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While their previous wins were nice, last week was considered their first true test. They now face another true road test against one of the best teams in the league in the Baltimore Ravens.
While the offense has been in flux while trying to work through their new offensive identity, the Baltimore defense has once again been one of the most elite units in football. They currently rank second overall in Def DVOA and Def EPA, excelling at limiting downfield progression and keeping points off the board when teams enter scoring position.
It does need to be mentioned that this has all been done without generating any consistent pressure while ramping up the blitz rate, ranking 25th in Pressure and 12th in Blitz Rate. That normally spells disaster against a Lions offense who thrives in punishing blitz heavy teams as that exposes their middle for their playmakers to exploit. The issue for the Lions is that even with minimal pressure, the Ravens still excel at bringing down the quarterback by ranking fourth in Adjusted Sack Rate.
Even if sacks come at a slower rate against one of the best offensive lines in football, the Ravens are still more than capable of getting in Goff’s face and putting him in pressure situations. Potentially detrimental to the Lions offense as Goff has a history of struggling in non-ideal weather conditions when on the road and this game calls for heavy winds and potential rain. Factor in Montgomery being out and the Lions ground game may stumble in an effort to bail out Goff.
As for the Lions defense, this defensive line is as ferocious as it comes. They are creating pressure with just their front four, ranking eighth in Pressure while near dead last in Blitz Rate. That allows the Lions to keep their linebackers in their zones, potentially crashing down when Lamar scrambles and bring him down before hitting the open field.
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction & Best Bet: Under 43
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds
Even with the Lions looking like one of the best teams in the league, oddsmakers still lean towards the Ravens favor by opening them as a -3 favorite. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the number, keeping the spread the same since the open. This is an intriguing spot as the Ravens come off of a trip from London, potentially folding in a sleepy spot as we have seen happen to some others after an international trip.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 42. Bettors believe points will come at a slightly quicker pace, backing the over up to 43 as of writing. That has since come back down to 42.5 in some shops, looking to stay in this range slightly above the key number of 42.
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Key Injuries
While the Ravens are fairly healthy, the Lions usual suspects remain on the injury report with David Montgomery, Brian Branch, Sam LaPorta all listed as questionable.
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens Key Matchups
Can the Ravens slow down Amon-Ra St Brown?
Amon-Ra St Brown Vs. Ravens Secondary
While getting to Goff is priority number one for the Ravens defense, slowing down Amon-Ra St Brown’s production across the middle is their next objective. He gashed the Bucs second level for a back breaking touchdown in their last game out, using his elite speed and separation abilities to make a major impact.
Amon Ra St Brown gets a HUGE block from Craig Reynolds for the TD 👀👑 pic.twitter.com/FtWHHPkV2y
— Dan Campbell (@DanCampbellGOAT) October 15, 2023
It will be intriguing to see how the Ravens secondary performs against one of the best route runners in football, especially when they are unable to get to Goff in some sets. The Ravens secondary currently ranks top-5 in Def Pass Success Rate, Def Pass EPA, and Def Pass DVOA. All metrics stating that they are more than capable of holding their own while continuing to call a heavy dose of the blitz.