Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Player Props & Picks (12/30/23)
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Get Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys player prop picks & odds for the (12/30/23) matchup.
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Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Picks
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys kicks off Saturday at 8:15 p.m. EST in Dallas as a home game for the Cowboys. The Lions are currently a +6 underdog and +225 on the moneyline while the total is set at 53.5. Expect Dak Prescott to shred the Lions secondary while Jahmyr Gibbs tries to carry the offense when Jared Goff struggles, all giving value as player props for this Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys matchup.
Dak Prescott Over 270.5 Passing Yards
In terms of a potential bounce-back performance for the reeling Dallas Cowboys, no secondary is better to throw against than the Detroit Lions. Dak Prescott finds himself in that position going into this contest, coming off of a two-game losing skid and in desperate need of a win in order to win their division.
He now has the opportunity to shred a horrifically bad secondary as the Lions back end ranks 16th in Def Pass DVOA, 24th in Def Pass EPA and 25th in Def Pass Success Rate. It’s even worse when you look at their metrics since their bye week, ranking comfortably dead last in EPA. When their front four is not generating pressure then opposing quarterbacks have had no issue with sitting in a clean pocket and picking them apart.
Dak Prescott’s offensive line is more than capable of slowing down the Lions pressure, allowing their pass attack to continue to thrive. The Cowboys head into this contest ranked 10th in Pass DVOA, second in Pass EPA and third in Pass Success Rate. Expect CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks to exploit the gaps with ease, giving Prescott high-quality passing lanes to exploit.
Dak Prescott Over 24.5 Pass Completions
Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, Dak Prescott will be in a position to aggressively shred the Lions defense as their secondary has continued to be a problem. Aaron Glenn’s system is prone to creating gaps at their own demise, especially across the middle against sagged back safeties and anchored linebackers.
DAK PRESCOTT HITS BRANDIN COOKS TO GIVE THE COWBOYS THE LEAD 🔥pic.twitter.com/Su0JTdt78P
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) December 25, 2023
The Lions also lack a true shutdown corner, giving star receiver CeeDee Lamb the chance to dominate any form of singular coverage and create separation with ease. Factor in the speedy Brandin Cooks and big bodied Michael Gallup stretching the field and the Cowboys have more than enough to give Prescott high quality throwing opportunities.
Jared Goff Under 260.5 Passing Yards
While Dak Prescott is in a position to thrive, Jared Goff may revert back to his struggles against a stout Dallas pass coverage unit. The Cowboys secondary ranks eighth in Def Pass DVOA, fifth in Def Pass EPA and 10th in Def Pass Success Rate. Impressive coverage metrics for a defense that blitzes at the ninth highest rate in the NFL.
Goff’s road struggles have been a common theme for the course of this season, yet he does get the benefit of being in a dome. It’s only when he is outside in windy conditions is when his production really drops off. Still, the Cowboys ability to generate pressure with their front four while dropping the rest back in coverage are more than enough to give Goff fits.
Especially with Micah Parsons being able to collapse the pocket at a moment’s notice as one of the NFL’s best edge rushers. His ability to command double teams and offensive line attention will help give the rest of their defensive linemen singular blocking, allowing the Cowboys to clog the middle while also forcing Goff to scramble to the opposite side of Parsons.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
There are not too many weaknesses on either side of the ball when talking about the Dallas Cowboys, yet there is one glaringly bad metric and that is their inability to stop the run in the trenches. Heading into this contest, the Cowboys rank 32nd in Def Rush Success Rate. That means opposing running backs are facing little resistance in their efforts to cut the distance to gain in half.
Should the Lions want to keep within scoring pace, they are better off giving Gibbs the chance to use his speed and churn out chunks at a time. This helps give Goff and the rest of the offense higher quality opportunities to keep moving the sticks, sustaining drives down the field into scoring position. The Lions pass attack is also threatening enough to force the Cowboys to stay stretched out, avoiding a stacked box to the benefit of Gibbs.
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