Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers kicks off this Sunday at 4:05 p.m. EST in Los Angeles as a home game for the Chargers. The Lions are currently a -3 favorite and -148 on the moneyline while the total is set at 48.5. Expect a masterful offensive display from the Lions, giving the likes of Jared Goff, David Montgomery and Amon-Ra St Brown value as player props for this Lions vs. Chargers matchup.
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The Detroit Lions are finally starting to get healthy at a critical time as they hit the road to face the Los Angeles Chargers. David Montgomery is set to make his return, giving the Lions ‘red-zone offense a massive boost in production after struggling in that area the past few weeks. As for LA, Justin Herbert has continued to struggle since his injury and now has to face a vaunted Lions front seven that are poised to wreak havoc in the backfield.
Jared Goff Over 271.5 Passing Yards
No one is going to benefit from a healthier offensive line more than Jared Goff who has seen his starters rotate in and out with various injuries. Post bye week, the Lions are now looking fairly healthy and are in a position to shred a weak Chargers defense who has mightily struggled in coverage. The Chargers defense ranks 21st in Def Pass DVOA, 22nd in Def Pass EPA and 24th in Def Pass Success Rate.
That spells disaster against Jared Goff who thrives at exposing gaps in coverage with elite playmakers at wideout who create separation in the open field. Factor in added protection from a healthy offensive line and Goff will find himself with plenty of time in the pocket to make the right read while hitting his receivers in stride. Especially when the Chargers generate pressure at a near league worst rate, ranking 25th in Pressure.
Not only will Goff find himself with high-quality opportunities to move the ball down the field, but he may see an increase in the quantity of drives as well. Justin Herbert has struggled post injury, now having a depleted cast of receivers and behind an offensive line that will be abused by the Lions pass rush. This calls for early outs and stalled out drives, giving the Lions offense extra possessions that play to the over.
Jared Goff Over 23.5 Passing Completions
This was a prop in their last game against the Raiders and we are riding it again this time around as Goff faces a similar situation. With the Chargers front seven inabilities to generate pressure to the backfield, Goff will find himself with plenty of clean pockets to make high quality throws at a very accurate rate.
— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) November 3, 2023
The quality of the passing lanes will be also higher than average as the Chargers secondary struggle to cover the middle of the field. That plays right into the hands of Amon-Ra St Brown and Sam LaPorta who have thrived in streaking across the middle, giving Goff wide open looks for him to convert.
Amon-Ra St Brown Over 6.5 Receptions
As previously mentioned, the Lions cast of pass catchers should have no issue with creating separation in the open field. Amon-Ra St Brown has quickly developed into elite status at that very skill, playing as one of the best route runners in the NFL today as he streaks across the middle.
That should be no different against a stretched-out Lions secondary, especially with Josh Reynolds and Sam LaPorta commanding defensive attention as viable play makers as well. Expect St Brown to take advantage of singular coverage and a weak spine of the defense, racking up receptions as Goff’s go-to target.
David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown
David Montgomery’s return could not have come at a better time as the Lions offense have sorely missed him when inside the red zone. Since his absence, the Lions have had to shift their attack to more quick outs and bounced out runs for minimal success. This was apparent against the Raiders, failing to convert on three separate occasions inside the 10.
With Montgomery back, the Lions can revert back to running up the gut against stretched out coverage. He has thrived in this role as their bull back, running behind one of the best offensive lines as well. This may be the lowest we see this prop for the rest of the season, making it a smash play as he eases back into his role.