Get Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings player prop picks & odds for the (12/24/23) matchup.
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Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Picks
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings kicks off Sunday at 1 p.m. EST in Minneapolis as a home game for the Vikings. The Lions are currently a -3 favorite and -170 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47. Expect Jared Goff to regress while Jordan Addison and Nick Mullens lead the Vikings offense, all giving value as player props for this Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings matchup.
Nick Mullens Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
It may have resulted in a heart-breaking overtime loss, but Nick Mullens showed to be an immediate improvement at quarterback for the Vikings. He is the better downfield passer in comparison to Joshua Dobbs, putting his arm on full display in his first starting stint by throwing for 303 yards and two touchdowns at a 78% completion rate.
Granted that was against a very weak Bengals secondary, a unit that ranks near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate and Def Pass EPA. Luckily for Mullens, he gets to go against another weak secondary as the Lions secondary clocks in at 16th in Def Pass DVOA, 26th in Def Pass Success Rate and 23rd in Def Pass EPA. When the Lions front four is unable to generate pressure, opposing quarterbacks have had no issue with picking apart their secondary.
Better yet for this prop, the Vikings may find themselves in scoring position at a routine rate which gives more opportunities for Mullens to clear this. When in scoring position, they would be better off throwing it against the weak secondary to help avoid running the ball against a stout Lions front seven who ranks top-10 in Def Rush DVOA, Def Rush EPA, and Def Rush Success Rate. Especially with the ground game struggling against capable front sevens, an area of the offense that ranks 28th in Rush DVOA.
Nick Mullens Over 22.5 Pass Completions
Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned breakdown, Mullens is in a position to thrive in all areas of the field through the air. The Lions secondary has been horrendous since week five, struggling in Aaron Glenn’s system that allows for high quality gaps for opposing quarterbacks to exploit.
By anchoring the linebackers in place and dropping the secondary back in coverage, that leaves a wide gap across the middle for opposing offenses to pick apart. Mullens has the weapons at his disposal in order to fill those gaps with Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Jordan Addison all excelling as elite route runners and open field separators.
Jared Goff Over 0.5 Interception
After a masterful start to his season, Jared Goff has mightily struggled with taking care of the ball over the past few weeks. At one point he was nearly responsible for as many turnovers in two games as there were in total quarters, now still flirting with turnover worthy plays as he falls back hard towards reality. He managed to throw for a clean sheet in his last game against the Broncos, now taking on a far tougher defensive test against the Vikings.
The Vikings defense has done a 180 from last year’s near dead last metrics, drastically improving in year one of Brian Flores system. As a whole, the Vikings defense currently ranks fifth in overall Def DVOA, seventh in Def Pass DVOA and ninth in Def Rush DVOA. A big part of their defensive success comes from their ability to stop the pass, clocking in at sixth in Def Pass Success Rate and eighth in EPA.
Not only do the Vikings excel in coverage, but they do it on an island as the Vikings also rank first in Blitz Rate. Flores’ system revolves heavily around pressuring and confusing opposing quarterbacks with his unique blitz scheme, forcing them to throw into dangerous situations. Goff will be prone to that same sentiment, most likely throwing an ill-advised pick when under pressure.
Jordan Addison Over 3.5 Receptions
Even with Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson on the field, Jordan Addison has done enough to make his presence known and has proven to be a reliable go-to target. He comes off a six-reception performance that resulted in 111 receiving yards and two touchdowns, now getting the opportunity to exploit the gaps in the Lions coverage. With DC Aaron Glenn most likely throwing help side coverage at Jefferson, expect Addison to thrive against singular coverage for a majority of the contest and rack up targets to the benefit of this over.