Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Player Props & Picks (12/03/23)

Get Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints player prop picks & odds for the (12/03/23) matchup.

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Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Picks

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints kicks off Sunday at 1 p.m. EST in New Orleans as a home game for the Saints. The Lions are currently a -4 favorite and -200 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47. Expect Jared Goff to continue to struggle while Alvin Kamara and Jahmyr Gibbs run wild, all giving value as player props for this Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints matchup.

Jared Goff Under 260.5 Passing Yards

Jared Goff has been playing about as bad as it gets in his last two games, struggling to take care of the ball and dealing with an uptick in pressure. He nearly threw the Lions out of the game against the Chicago Bears and spotted the Packers generous field position which led to them setting a scoring pace too fast for the Lions to keep up with.

He now needs to bounce back on the road against a Saints defense which excels on that side of the ball. Especially when it comes to defending against the pass, ranking 11th in Def Pass DVOA, ninth in Def Pass Success Rate and 11th in Def Pass EPA. Their front four has taken a step back in terms of pressure, but their back end remains elite as they clog passing lanes by anchoring their linebackers in coverage.

Scarier yet for Goff’s outlook, his offensive line is once again riddled with injuries and just put on one of the worst displays in their last game against the Packers. The Packers defensive line ranks well below average and had no issue with routinely pushing back the Lions backups. That spells potential disaster as the Saints offensive line is now poised for a bounce back opportunity as a far superior unit.

Jared Goff Longest Completion Under 35.5 Yards

With Goff once again in a position to sit in a collapsing pocket, he may have to get the ball out of his hands faster than he would like. Especially with the Saints pressure predominantly coming from the edges, closing the outside and daring Goff to either sit in the middle or try and creep up to buy extra time in the pocket.


By being forced to get the ball out faster, that means more short throws which hampers the chances of clearing this prop. The Saints blitz at the 20th heaviest rate in the NFL, meaning they anchor their linebackers more in coverage rather than crashing them down. By sitting in coverage, the Saints have extra bodies to make the open field tackle and lessen the chance of one of the Lions pass catchers breaking one out.

The spread also implies that this is the Lions game to lose by currently sitting at a -4.5 favorite. That means we may see a run heavy script, eating away at Goff’s pass attempts which also plays towards a higher chance of this under ticket cashing. Goff has also mightily struggled as of late, meaning we may see a run heavy game script from start to finish in order to limit even more Goff turnovers.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 26.5 Receiving Yards

After a hot stint during Montgomery’s absence, Gibb’s has seen his number of rushing attempts slowly diminish over the past few games. Hardly to any fault of his own since David made his return and the Lions have played from behind the past two games.

The issue is that the Saints are an impressive run stopping unit in the mid field as they rank sixth in Def Rush Success Rate. That means they excel at limiting rushing production on early downs, forcing offenses to convert at further distances on third down. A way to bypass that is to get the ball to Gibbs in more screens and dump offs and punish an anchored linebacking unit by hitting the outside.

Alvin Kamara 2+ Touchdowns

With the Lions defense playing at a league worst rate per DVOA the past two games, it’s hard to fathom how they will slow down the Saints offense. Even with the Saints pass catching unit hampered by injuries, the Lions secondary is that awful to the point anyone can move the ball on them.

That means the Saints will find themselves with plenty of scoring opportunities, potentially feeding it to their superstar back Alvin Kamara who is going to be a nightmare for the Lions secondary. Already struggling in coverage, now needing to make quick decisions in a hurry on if Kamara is running it or sprinting out to the open field as a pass catcher.

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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