Get Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers player prop picks & odds for the (01/28/24) matchup.
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Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Picks
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers kicks off this Sunday at 6:30pm EST in Santa Clara, CA as a home game for the 49ers. The Lions are currently a +7.5 underdog and +290 on the moneyline while the total is set at 51.5. Expect Jahmyr Gibbs to lead the Lions offensive attack while Christian McCaffrey and Sam LaPorta struggle, creating player prop value in this Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
Ever since Jahmyr Gibbs has been given a chance at a heavier workload, he has taken it with immediate success and has not looked back. He, along with David Montgomery, have led the Lions ground game to impressive rushing metrics of fourth in Rush DVOA, sixth in Rush EPA, and seventh in Rush Success Rate.
This is in large part because of the Lions fielding one of the best run blocking units in the league with an offensive line that ranks first in Adjusted Line Yards. Losing Jonah Jackson hurts, yet the Lions still come into the contest with massive advantages against the 49ers front seven. Stopping the run has been an issue for the 49ers as they come into the contest ranked 15th in Def Rush DVOA, 24th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 26th in Def Rush EPA.
Not only should Jahmyr Gibbs be able to find success, but his attempts may also increase for various reasons. By establishing the run, the Lions can limit the potential for turnover worthy plays through the air against one of the best secondaries in football. This also helps the Lions prolong their offensive possessions, simultaneously keeping the 49ers offense off the field as well.
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown
Not only has Gibbs seen an increased workload in the middle of the field, but he has been heavily featured in the red zone as of late as well. His size and speed allow him to be just on the outside as he is on the inside, being a handful for a regressing 49ers front seven to deal with.
JAHMYR GIBBS BREAKS FREE FOR THE LEAD 😤
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 21, 2024
He also can be used in the pass attack, playing as an actual receiver or dump off target should Goff’s pass catchers fail to create separation. This prop’s odds are vastly different pending which book you look at, being as high as +150 and as low as +105. Be sure to have as many books as you can get your hands on and line shop to get the best available odds to potentially maximize profits.
Christian McCaffrey Under 86.5 Rushing Yards
Please note that this is only a play if Deebo Samuel is good to go.
Should Deebo sit this one out, then this play is a pass as Christian McCaffrey would get an increase in his rush attempts which gives a much higher chance for clearing the over. If Deebo is able to play, then the 49ers will be able to continue on their impressive pass attack.
Deebo is trending towards that direction after returning to practice on Thursday, yet still worth monitoring as he is heavily correlated to this prop. With Deebo on the field, Christian McCaffrey will be utilized at a normal rate, if not less as the 49ers would be better off trying to find success through the air against a Lions secondary that ranks near dead last in EPA and Success Rate.
Rush success for Christian McCaffrey against the Lions front seven will be far and few in between as well as Detroit has been a dominant run stopping unit. The Lions come into this contest ranked first in Def Rush DVOA, fourth in Def Rush EPA, eighth in Def Rush Success Rate, and sixth in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
Sam LaPorta Longest Reception Under 18.5 Yards
The fact that Sam LaPorta has been playing through his injury has been nothing short of remarkable, but his potential receiving production will now take a dip due to factors outside of his control. Losing fellow tight ends Brock Wright and James Mitchell will force LaPorta to block at a higher rate, losing out on potential targets and receptions.
With less receptions and targets comes a higher chance of this prop cashing. Especially if he has to help chip against the 49ers elite edge rushers, limiting his depth of target to the flats. This allows the 49ers linebackers to be near with their coverage, containing his production early into the reception. His other receiving props are worth a wager on their unders as well.