Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Same Game Parlay (1/28/24): Expert Picks For DraftKings & FanDuel
The 2024 NFC Championship Game is a clash between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. There is no shortage of stars on either side, and while they’ve made their mark all year, this test is the most important one yet. Let’s see how it will all unfold and build a Lions vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay for the matchup this Sunday (1/28/24).
Lions Vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay Picks
There should be no shortage of offense in this game, with two of the league’s best units squaring off. The defenses have their strengths but also some very notable weaknesses, so there’s a clear script to success for both sides; let’s dig right into some legs.
Leg 1: 49ers Moneyline (-340)
Let’s start off with what should be a pretty safe pick, the 49ers to defend their home field and advance to the Super Bowl. The Packers gave them a bit of a scare last week, as the San Francisco offense was uncharacteristically lethargic against a poor defense. That said, the Niners had just gone through not only a bye week, but a meaningless week 18 in which many starters sat out. The offense scored 17 second half points compared to just a touchdown in the first half, as they clearly had some rust to shake off.
Simply put, the Lions will likely struggle to slow the Niners’ passing attack, which ranks first in the NFL by EPA. The San Francisco skill players, a ridiculously talented group in which the fourth-best pass catcher might legitimately be Deebo Samuel, should absolutely shred a terrible Detroit secondary. The Lions should score a bunch as well, but their edges are much less stark, and probably won’t keep pace away from home.
Leg 2: Lions Team Total Over 16.5 (-270)
The Lions probably won’t win, but they’re fielding the NFL’s fourth-best ground offense by DVOA, going up against the #15 rushing defense by the same metric- and 24th by success rate. They should be able to stay ahead of the chains most drives and keep the ball moving.
The Niners have a really solid pass defense, ranked fourth by DVOA, but they still can’t completely shut down Jared Goff and company, especially in the mild Bay Area weather that should be familiar to the Californian quarterback. Between star wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, the Lions have some true high-end options, as well as solid depth guys like Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams.
Leg 3: Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown (-370)
The odds look crazy, but this has been one of the safest bets in the league this year. Moreover, it’s hard to imagine the Niners winning if their superstar back can’t get into the end zone, so boosting our parlay odds with a correlated pick is a solid strategy.
The Lions defend the run very well- as well as anyone in the NFL as per most metrics- but McCaffrey is more or less impossible to stop around the goal line, especially when you factor in his receiving threat.
Between his 14 rushing touchdowns and seven through the air, McCaffrey scored in 13 of his 16 regular season appearances. Toss in his pair of scores against the Packers, and that’s a pretty ironclad track record, one we should definitely be backing, especially against Detroit’s 29th-ranked red zone defense.
Leg 4: Jahmyr Gibbs 75+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)
This could be a big rushing game for the Lions, based on the mismatch at the line of scrimmage we discussed a bit earlier. Detroit’s offensive line grades at the top of the league in adjusted line yards and second in PFF’s run blocking grade, so suffice it to say they should be set against that mediocre Niners run defense. Still, we don’t want to go all in on a rushing prop. The Lions are underdogs of approximately a touchdown, so we don’t want to be completely burned if the Niners pull away and force the Lions to throw for the rest of the game.
That’s where Gibbs comes in. As a rookie, he’s already emerged as one of the league’s top dual threat backs, with 52 receptions this regular season to go along with nearly 1,000 rushing yards, despite little workload early in the campaign.
He had 68 scrimmage yards in the playoff opener against the Rams and 114 against the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round, so he’s been used plenty this postseason. He should gash the Niners any time he’s given a chance to run the ball, and could still be a major factor if and when the team shifts to an air-first approach.
Leg 5: Brock Purdy 250+ Passing Yards (-250)
Yes, the Niners are favored, but they’re going to need to throw the ball to stay ahead of an explosive Lions offense. That being said, they definitely can do exactly that, and tear up a horrible Lions secondary. Even in relative blowouts, Purdy has routinely eclipsed this number as he enjoys the easy job of manning the helm in the league’s most elite passing offense.
Detroit is 25th in the league in success rate against the pass, making it hard to imagine that they’ll be able to take away the easy throws that make up so much of Purdy’s production. They’re also 29th in PFF’s coverage grade, so they’re probably not doing much to cover Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle downfield either. Brock might not throw all game, but expect him to have success early and often enough to hit this adjusted number.
Same Game Parlay Card For Lions Vs. 49ers
Full Parlay Odds: +405
- 49ers Moneyline (-340)
- Lions Team Total Over 16.5 (-270)
- Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown (-370)
- Jahmyr Gibbs 75+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)
- Brock Purdy 250+ Passing Yards (-250)
Best NFL Betting Promo Codes