Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (12/6/22)

The tankathon for next year’s coveted number one pick has been a spectacular watch with the Detroit Pistons throwing their hat in the ring by resting star point guard Cade Cunningham. While young and energetic, experience and talent has thwarted them and that is exactly what the Miami Heat bring to this game. Both coming off a loss, who bounces back?

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat Team Betting Odds

Oddsmakers tend to think the Miami Heat pull away in this one effortlessly as they come in as a -8.5 favorite. Money has yet to move the number, still sitting at -8.5 as of writing. It’s never easy coming off a back to back but the Heat have advantages all over with an elite defense and post play to give the young Pistons fits.

As for the total, points are expected to be at a premium as oddsmakers set the opening number at 222. Bettors were quick to pounce on the under as they have bet this number down to as low as 220.5 in some shops. This comes as no surprise as both units defend well with blow out potential written late in the game.

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat Prediction

The Pick: Under 221

With the Miami Heat out matching the Pistons on both ends and potentially making this one sided quickly, I will take the under. Miami can sit back and slow down the Pistons tempo with elite defensive play, forcing the Pistons into long possessions that end up with them taking low quality shots.

Without Cade Cunningham, the Piston’s scoring prowess has taken a major dip without his versatility in distributing and passing. Killian Hayes has stepped up during his absence, but he is still his own worst enemy with sporadic shot selections that hurt the team mid play making by shooting 37.3% from the field.

The Pistons sorely miss Cunningham’s scoring production, now relying on Bojan Bogdanovic to lead them to victory as the leading scorer. While he’s been a capable scorer, he struggles to generate his own shot and will most likely get one of the best on ball defenders in Jimmy Butler on him in this one.

As for the Heat, they bring back nearly the same team as last year. Losing PJ Tucker and adding Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin to the starting lineup, the Heat bring fire power to the starting lineup. The issue? The Heat severely lack depth without Herro coming off the bench and scoring production has dipped hard in bench play situations.

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Betting Trends

• Pistons are 4-0-1 ATS following a ATS loss
• Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings against the Heat

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat Key Matchups

Who will step up in scoring with the Pistons offense facing injuries? Can the Heat find production down low?

Piston’s secondary scoring vs Heat defense

As previously stated, the Piston’s scoring production has taken a massive hit without Cade Cunningham’s versatility on the court. Cade has proven to be a franchise player, both distributing and scoring at a high level and raising the ceiling potential for the offense as a whole.

Without him, the Pistons have had to rely on Bojan Bogdanovic to be their main catalyst for points. While he is more than capable of doing that, he relies on off ball movement to create openings and high quality shot selections. That may be tough to come by with Jimmy Butler on him, one of the best on ball defenders in the league.

With Bogdanovic looking to be severely limited, the Pistons will need their secondary scoring to step up. Stud rookie Jaden Ivey is poised for a big outing, taking advantage of the weak defense of Tyler Herro and abusing him with speed and drives to the basket. While Ivey has been prone to poor shot selections, he now gets a defense far less athletic and limited size in the paint for him to work his magic on drives to the basket.

Verdict

With the Heat locking in on defense and taking away the Pistons main source of scoring, I will be on the under at any number higher than 220.

Detroit Pistons Starting Lineup

PG: Killian Hayes
SG: Jaden Ivey
SF: Saddiq Bey
PF: Bojan Bogdanovich
C: Marvin Bagley III

Miami Heat Starting Lineups

PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Caleb Martin
C: Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Detroit Pistons Injuries: Isaiah Lives (O), Cade Cunningham (O)

Miami Heat Injuries: Jimmy Butler (Q), Dewayne Dedmon (Q)