Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers (4/29/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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I was high on the Tigers entering 2022. Javier Baez should spark the lineup. The pitching core is young with upside.
Detroit has started the season 6-12, and it’s looking like another dark year in Detroit.
Meanwhile, what else do you expect from the Dodgers? They’re 12-6 with an MLB leading +44 run differential. The only surprise is that the Giants are still leading the division.
The last series was also a surprise. The Dodgers dropped two of three to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were the worst team in the league last season.
But, I’d expect a big bounce-back performance from the Dodgers this series. Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction.
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
The books are also expecting a big bounce-back performance, as the Dodgers are listed around -250.
It’s somewhat strange the Dodgers are such big favorites with Tyler Anderson on the mound. The former Rocky-turned-Giant-turned-Pirate has never been overly productive in his career, but he’s pitching well so far this season.
Opposing him will be Tyler Alexander, who has been quite bad this season.
He’ll have a tough time against this Dodgers lineup. But it could be enticing to buy Detroit at such huge odds.
Detroit Tigers Starting Lineup
RF Robbie Grossman S
2B Jonathan Schoop R
SS Javier Baez R
3B Jeimer Candelario S
DH Miguel Cabrera R
LF Eric Haase R
1B Spencer Torkelson R
C Tucker Barnhart S
CF Derek Hill R
Detroit Tigers vs Tyler Anderson
Anderson is your classic soft-tossing, soft-contact forcing southpaw. He throws a 90mph dead four-seam which he backs up with a similarly soft cutter and a change.
As a result, batters have posted a lackluster 81.7mph average exit velocity off Anderson this year and a 55% ground ball rate.
The latter stat worries me slightly. He posted a 35% GB rate last year and 39% for his career, and any type of regression there will likely lead to much higher numbers.
Luckily, he won’t see too many issues with Detroit. The Tigers have posted just an 89 wRC+ and a .623 OPS so far this season. That includes a disastrously low .093 ISO, which ranks dead last in MLB.
Baez has been fine, hitting .267 and slugging over .500. But he can’t carry an entire roster with just two home runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B Freddie Freeman L
SS Trea Turner R
DH Max Muncy L
3B Justin Turner R
C Will Smith R
CF Cody Bellinger L
LF Chris Taylor R
2B Gavin Lux L
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tyler Alexander
Alexander is similar to Anderson. He’s also a soft-tossing lefty who forces weak contact. The problem is that Alexander is just slightly worse at everything than Anderson is.
Alexander’s ground-ball rate has never hit over 40%. He’s pitched to a 7.20 ERA, although his BABIP is extraordinarily high at .371.
All-in-all, Alexander has posted a 3.94 xFIP so far with .2 fWAR over 10 innings. He’ll probably be a one-win player in the back of the rotation.
But that might not be enough to slow down the Dodgers.
The Dodgers walk more than any team in the league (11%), are fifth in on-base percentage (.331), and are seventh overall in wRC+ (116). As you know, this lineup is dangerous from top-to-bottom, and there isn’t a break from one through nine.
However, it’s worth mentioning that the Dodgers are vulnerable against southpaws. They were last season, and they rank outside the top-20 in wRC+ against that side in 2022 (87).
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Prediction
My pick: Detroit Tigers ML (+200 at Caesars)
So, if you’re going to fade the Dodgers, do it against a lefty.
The starting pitching matchup is similar enough, and the Tigers are due for some level of positive regression on the offensive end.
Therefore, I don’t think the Tigers should be catching close to 2-to-1 here. I see some value with Detroit, especially after the Dodgers looked vulnerable against Arizona.
I’d bet the Tigers down to about +190.
