Arizona Diamondbacks Vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (10/9/23)
After the sixth-seeded Arizona Diamondbacks took a surprising 1-0 lead in this National League Division Series, they’ll look to take both on the road against the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s take a look at the odds for this key game two clash in Los Angeles, where my prediction is for over 8 runs to be scored.
Diamondbacks Vs. Dodgers Prediction
One of the great surprise teams of 2023 keeps shocking the World, as the Arizona Diamondbacks have grabbed a 1-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers by way of a dominating 11-2 win. The D-Backs came out on absolute fire and dealt future first-ballot Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw likely the worst start of his entire big league career; he recorded just one out and allowed six runs. Arizona used comebacks to pull off their series sweep of the Brewers, but no such heroics were needed this time out as they rolled straight through this one.
Merrill Kelly was fantastic after he wasn’t needed in the Wild Card round, as he worked through 6.1 shutout innings against a stacked Dodgers lineup and only gave up five total baserunners. The Dodgers didn’t score a run until an RBI triple from Will Smith in the eighth inning, so they’re going to need a lot more juice to get themselves through game two and the rest of the series.
Arizona will be starting Zac Gallen, who needs redemption to a degree. Gallen is a perennial Cy Young candidate and now an MLB All Star, but his start in game two of the Wild Card series was his postseason debut and it was less than a perfect outing for the New Jersey native. Gallen gave up a couple of early runs to put the Diamondbacks in a hole, and while the offense picked him up and he bounced back to finish with a very respectable final line, he won’t want to let his team fall behind again against a team like the Dodgers.
He’ll be tossing against Bobby Miller, who put in a solid season of his own but isn’t really on the same level as Gallen. It was really strong for a rookie campaign, but as a rookie making his postseason debut with his team’s back suddenly against the wall after coming in with high expectations, some jitters would be understandable.
It’s hard to pick a winner in a matchup where the home team has the stronger lineup, but the road team has a legitimate starting pitching advantage, so rather than betting on the outcome, let’s take the over. It’s set at a relatively low number for a matchup between two solid offenses, and after Gallen’s shaky start in Milwaukee, it’s hard to imagine him doing significantly better against LA’s loaded offense, while anything could happen in the rookie Miller’s playoff debut.
Diamondbacks Vs. Dodgers Prediction: Over 8 runs (-110)
Diamondbacks Vs. Dodgers Odds
The Dodgers are -160 home favorites, with +125 odds to cover a spread of -1.5 runs; the Diamondbacks have +135 and -155 odds on the other sides of each of those wagers, respectively. For a run scoring total of 8, both the over and under are set at -110
Diamondbacks Vs. Dodgers Key Matchups
With a subpar bullpen, Arizona will need their ace Gallen to go a long way towards shutting down this potent Dodgers offense, while LA might be asking less of rookie arm Bobby Miller- let’s take a closer look at each of these matchups.
Zac Gallen vs. Contact Bats
Gallen was effective once again this season, but didn’t come close to the heights of last year, when he led the NL in both WHIP and hits allowed per 9 innings. He’s come up a long way, especially in the latter category where his number has soared from 5.9 to 8.1. The advanced metrics correlate well with this change, as his average exit velocity and hard hit percentage allowed are third and fifth percentile, respectively, so hitters are making very solid contact against him.
LA’s lineup is going to be a problem for a pitcher with an achilles heel of hard contact, as they finished seventh in the majors in batting average and second in slugging percentage, meaning that they hit the ball often, and when they do it’s done with some force. Freddie Freeman led the way with a ridiculous batting average of .331, while Mookie Betts put up an outstanding figure of .307 himself. As far as slugging goes, Betts was the team leader with a mark of .579, and his old Red Sox teammate J.D. Martinez was actually ahead of Freeman, right behind Betts at .572. These are the stars, but there’s contributors up and down a very balanced LA lineup, one of the main reasons I’m expecting over eight runs in my Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction.
Bobby Miller vs. Heart of the Lineup
Miller finished with a very balanced stat line, as he didn’t fall victim to the rookie pitfalls of struggling with control, or to keep the ball in the park, and there’s no immediately obvious hole in his game. That being said, his numbers against the fourth through sixth hitters in the lineup are significantly worse than against any other portion, so let’s check out the hitters who could be in those spots for Arizona.
Cleanup man Christian Walker led the team with 33 homers this year and has carried his good form into the postseason thus far with an OPS north of 1.000. Gabriel Moreno has been an above-average catcher with an average of .284 over 107 games, providing a nice spark in the fifth spot, and the sixth-hitter should be Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who had a nice first season outside of Toronto as he smacked a career-best 24 homers and set another career high with 3.0 WAR.
Diamondbacks Vs. Dodgers Starting Lineups
Diamondbacks Starting Lineup
2B K. Marte S
RF C. Carroll L
DH T. Pham R
1B C. Walker R
C G. Moreno R
LF L. Gurriel R
CF A. Thomas L
3B J. Peterson L
SS G. Perdomo S
Dodgers Starting Lineup
2B M. Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C W. Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Martinez R
RF J. Heyward L
LF D. Peralta L
CF J. Outman L
SS M. Rojas R