The Diamondbacks and Phillies close out their four-game series Thursday with a chance for the Phillies to take the series victory. The Phillies are the betting favorites with -130 moneyline odds, while the Diamondbacks are at +110. The over/under is at 9 with -110 odds on both sides. The prediction here is that the Diamondbacks win and the over hits.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
Starting pitchers: RHP Aaron Nola (5-5, 4.60 ERA) vs. RHP Ryne Nelson (3-3, 4.95 ERA)
This matchup is all about what version of Aaron Nola shows up in Arizona. His last two starts have been a microcosm of his inconsistency this season.
On June 5, Nola looked dominant against Detroit, carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning and tying a career-high with 12 strikeouts. Then on June 10, he allowed a season-high six earned runs against the Dodgers.
The rest of the Phillies’ starting rotation has started rounding into form, which has helped them get back to .500 in the standings. The defending NL Champs need Nola to take command of his role as the team’s No. 2 starter, but it’s hard to have much confidence in him right now.
Of course, the other starter today – Diamondbacks’ rookie right-hander Ryne Nelson – doesn’t inspire much confidence either. But he did pitch very well against the Phillies just a few weeks ago in Philadelphia – 6 innings, 3 hits, 0 walks, and just 1 earned run allowed.
The Phillies are hitting the ball much better over the last few weeks – they are on a 9-2 stretch since June 3 and they are leading the league in runs over the last 15 days while batting .281 (2nd) and slugging .473 (3rd).
Philadelphia could have an advantage today having just seen Nelson recently. But the Diamondbacks have been one of the best teams and best lineups in baseball all season, while the Phillies have been one of the most inconsistent.
I need to see more from Nola and the Phillies before I can trust betting on them to take 3 out of 4 in Arizona. A 2-2 split seems far more likely, so I am taking the Diamondbacks’ moneyline at +110. And with much more confidence in these lineups than in the starting pitchers, I am also expecting some runs to be scored, so I am taking the over on 9 runs at -110.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Diamondbacks moneyline (+110), Over 9 runs (-110)
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds
The Phillies opened as slight road favorites with -130 odds on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are at +110. The run line has the Phillies at -1.5 (+130) while the home team is at +1.5 (-150).
The over/under for this game is at 9 runs, with both the over and the under carrying -110 odds. You can get the under for +100 at FanDuel at a line of 8.5, as of this writing.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.
Aaron Nola vs. Diamondbacks Power Hitters
The biggest problem with Aaron Nola is his propensity to spoil a solid outing by giving up a long ball, especially late in the game. Nola has given up a home run in 12 of his 14 starts this season including the last 10 in a row. His 14 home runs allowed are tied for the seventh most in the league.
Thankfully for Nola, the Diamondbacks are just middle of the pack (14th in the league) in home runs, but they still have plenty of pop. They are 2nd in the league in triples and they are 4th in doubles, which helps them to be 5th in slugging and OPS.
Despite being a righty, Nola allows more home runs against right-handed hitters than he does against lefties. The Diamondbacks’ leader in home runs is Corbin Carroll, who is left-handed, but two of their other top power hitters – 1B Christian Walker and LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – are both righties.
Concerns about Nola’s matchup with this lineup is a big reason I picked the Diamondbacks’ moneyline and the over in my Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction.
With reasons to doubt both starters in this matchup, it could come down to the bullpens, and both units have been up and down this season.
They are both in the bottom half of the league in ERA and WHIP. The Phillies struggle to get out of innings when their relievers enter the game with runners on base. They have allowed 40% of inherited runners to score this season – 5th most in the league. The Diamondbacks (28%) are better than the league average in that category (32%), but they are below average in save situations, having blown 40% of their opportunities.
The Diamondbacks are likely going to need at least three innings out of their ‘pen. Nelson has not pitched more than six innings in any start this season, and he’s only finished the sixth inning in three of his 13 starts. With a good outing, Nola should be able to go into the 7th – he has recorded an out in the 7th in half his starts this year.
A slight advantage here goes to the Phillies, but not enough to sway me from picking the Diamondbacks in my Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Starting Lineups (Projected)
Phillies Starting Lineup
LF Kyle Schwarber (L)
SS Trea Turner (R)
RF Nick Castellanos (R)
DH Bryce Harper (L)
C J.T. Realmuto (R)
2B Bryson Stott (L)
3B Alec Bohm (R)
1B Kody Clemens (L)
CF Brandon Marsh (L)
Diamondbacks Starting Lineup
RF Pavin Smith (L)
2B Ketel Marte (S)
LF Corbin Carroll (L)
1B Christian Walker (R)
DH Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)
3B Emmanuel Rivera (R)
CF Jake McCarthy (L)
SS Nick Ahmed (R)
C Gabriel Moreno (R)