Dodgers Vs. Phillies: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (6/9/23)

While both the Dodgers and Phillies were tabbed as division frontrunners and NL contenders before the season, neither one is leading the division title race, and the Fightin’ Phils aren’t even over .500. This weekend’s series could be a huge tone-setter for one of these clubs, so let’s take a look at the odds for Friday’s Game 1, where my prediction is a Phillies win in a game that sees over 9.5 runs.

Dodgers Vs. Phillies Prediction

After an up-and-down first stint in the Show a year ago, Michael Grove is getting absolutely slammed by pro hitters in year 2. He’s tossing an ERA up over 8, and most recently allowed 4 runs in 5 innings against a profoundly mediocre Yankees offense.

Ranger Suárez had a similarly-brutal start through his first three appearances for the Phillies this season, but has gotten it together as of late- across his two most recent starts, he’s given up just 3 earned runs across 13.2 innings of work.

Both of these teams are similar in the sense that they’re decidedly bat-forward to start the year, although that has played out a bit differently in each case. LA is 4th in the league in team OPS while Philly is down in 11th, but when it comes to run-scoring, the teams are 3rd and 22nd, a much bigger gap. It seems like the Phils can hit, but have been a bit unlucky and/or poor at situational hitting- we’ll see what they can do against an embattled arm in Grove.

Pitching numbers reveal some interesting trends as well- the Dodgers are all the way down in 23rd on the team ERA list, with the Phils just a bit ahead in 21st. However, the teams are 11th and 17th in WHIP, so again, there could be some poor luck involved, especially for the Phillies who have somehow given up tons of runs while allowing the 9th-fewest home runs and limiting baserunners at a league-average level.

With two teams who have the ability to play at a very high level but have both been inconsistent, I have to take the Phillies at home, and trust Suárez a bit to continue his improved form. Even so, it’s not like I’m predicting him to lock down a very solid LA lineup, and I surely have little faith in Grove, so I’m also backing the over at basically even money.

Dodgers Vs. Phillies Prediction: Phillies ML (-110), o9.5 runs (-105)

Dodgers Vs. Phillies Odds

This game is a pick ‘em as both sides are set at -110 odds to win. For a total of 9.5 runs, the over is -105 while the under is -115, very close odds as well.

Dodgers Vs. Phillies Key Matchups

Michael Grove Vs. Lefty Bats

Grove, a righty, has one of the most striking platoon splits I’ve seen all season, with a very solid .628 OPS allowed to righties, and a staggering 1.159 allowed to lefties. Essentially, the average lefty against Grove this year has been just a bit better than 2022
Aaron Judge- not a great trend to see if you’re the Dodgers.

It’s made even worse by the fact that the Phillies have some of the most dangerous lefty bats in the sport, headlined by none other than 2-time MVP Bryce Harper. Since making a very quick return from Tommy John surgery, he hasn’t quite found his power stroke yet but is still a very solid hitter with an OBP up close to .400. Like Grove, he has an enormous platoon split this year- Harper is absolutely demolishing right-handed pitching.

Classic power lefty Kyle Schwarber has had an all-or-nothing type of year so far, as he’s at one of the lowest batting averages among qualifiers in the league but is hitting for enough power to keep his overall output respectable.

Down the lineup, there’s Brandon Marsh, who has continued the bump in production he experienced after moving to Philly late last season, and has also hit righties well this year. Lastly we have Bryson Stott, who has improved in year 2 at the plate. These solid lefty bats are a major reason I’m a fan of the Phillies -110 moneyline in my Dodgers vs. Phillies prediction.

Ranger Suárez Vs. Righty Bats

On the other side of things, the southpaw Suárez has been absolutely lockdown against fellow lefties (.463 OPS) while getting lit up by righty bats (.931 OPS and both of his homers allowed). Similarly, he’s going to have to face a lot of them, and that’s with one of the key lefties being not much of a break at all.
That lefty would be Freddie Freeman, who is exceptional against just about anyone but actually has a reverse split- he hits lefties better than righties to the tune of an OPS over 1.000, and 64% of his homers this year in just 30% of his plate appearances.

Freeman is surrounded by superstar righties in the lineup, starting with Mookie Betts, who, like Freeman, has an OPS over 1.000 against left-handers. Betts’s fellow ex-Red Sox J.D. Martinez is having a massively resurgent year as he currently leads the NL in slugging, and is also destroying lefties specifically with another four-digit OPS.

Not to be outdone, the Fresh Prince himself, Dodgers catcher Will Smith, is putting up- you guessed it- an OPS of 1.190 against lefty pitching. This Dodgers lineup is a bit top-heavy and may not get it done all night long, but their ability to get after left-handers is a big reason my prediction is for over 9.5 runs.

Dodgers Vs. Phillies Starting Lineups

Dodgers Starting Lineup

RF M. Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
C W. Smith R
DH J. Martinez R
3B M. Muncy L
LF D. Peralta L
2B M. Vargas R
SS C. Taylor R
CF J. Outman L

Phillies Starting Lineup

LF K. Schwarber L
RF N. Castellanos R
DH B. Harper L
SS T. Turner R
C J. Realmuto R
2B B. Stott L
CF B. Marsh L
3B E. Sosa R
1B K. Clemens L