Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs kicks off this Sunday (11/05/23) at 9:30am EST in Munich Germany as an international game for the NFL. Get Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs predictions and best bets below as our best bet is that the Chiefs will cover the -1.5 spread.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Best Bet
The NFL makes its season debut in Munich Germany as the Kansas City Chiefs “host” the Miami Dolphins in another international installment for the league. This is a major step up in quality of play as the international series has normally featured a lackluster team. Both the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs are firmly in the mix for Super Bowl contenders, now getting the chance to make another step forward for the highly coveted number one seed in the AFC conference playoffs.
As for who will win, metrics side with the Kansas City Chiefs as they are the more complete team in this contest. Especially on the defensive end, clocking in at fifth overall in Def DVOA and Def EPA. Their impressive overall defensive rating stems from their back end as the Chiefs have done a phenomenal job at limiting the pass attack. Their secondary currently ranks third in Def Pass EPA, second in Def Pass Success Rate, and fourth in Def Pass DVOA.
That high level of defense will be more than enough to slow down the Miami Dolphin offense as they live and breathe through their pass attack. This has been a common theme for Miami, excelling against inferior competition while sputtering against elite pass stopping units. Especially when the opposing defense can generate pressure in the backfield, an area the Chiefs excel at by ranking fourth in Pressure Rate and second in Adjusted Sack Rate.
With the Chiefs defense being poised to slow down a jet lagged Dolphins offense, Kansas City will be in a position to set a scoring pace too fast for Miami to keep up with. The Dolphins major weakness resides on the defensive end, even with the return of star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey will not be able to cover all the weapons at the Chiefs disposal, allowing Mahomes to pick apart the gaps in coverage with his most trusted target Travis Kelce filling in the broken coverage.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Best Bet: Chiefs -1.5
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
Even with the Chiefs being in a position to slow down Miami, oddsmakers still have this pegged as a tight contest by opening the Chiefs as a -2.5 favorite. In a stunning move, bettors are actually leaning towards Miami’s favor as they have backed the Dolphins down to as low as -1.5 in some shops. The movement comes as a surprise as the Dolphins have shown that they are still a tier behind true contenders, yet still have plenty of schedule left to turn that narrative around.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a quick pace as oddsmakers have opened the number at 51.5. Bettors are backing the trend of international unders, taking the under down to 50.5 as of writing. Players have voiced their disdain for international games, going into it sluggish from travel and without enough practice to really open up the playbook.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Key Injuries
The Kansas City Chiefs remain fairly healthy outside of stud linebacker Nick Bolton on IR while the Dolphins injury report currently has Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, and Raheem Mostert listed as questionable.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Key Matchups
Can Isiah Pacheco open up the rest of the offense with his rush production against the Miami front seven?
Isiah Pacheco Vs. Dolphins Front Seven
When it comes to playing international games, offenses have to revert to a more conservative style of play calling as they lose out on precious practice time due to travel. That puts an added emphasis on rush production, making it more vital than ever for Pacheco to hit the ground running to open up the rest of the offense.
Isiah Pacheco that is the tweet! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/RtOJzkxa33
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) October 28, 2023
He will be in a position to do so as the Miami defense struggles to contain opposing rush production. The Dolphins currently rank 28th in Def Rush DVOA, 29th in Def Rush EPA, and 28th in Def Rush Success Rate. The Chiefs rush attack doesn’t exactly grade out well, yet still have an advantage in Success Rate and will be more than capable moving the sticks.