Duke vs Cal State Fullerton: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/18/22)

Duke vs Cal State Fullerton State Betting Odds

Cal State managed to take down the No. 1 seed Long Beach State in the Big West tournament by one point. That was probably predictable, however, as the metrics favored the Titans all season.

Meanwhile, Duke lost the ACC Final against Virginia tech, after losing the regular-season finale against North Carolina. It hasn’t been the greatest goodbye tour for Coach K.

But I wouldn’t expect Duke to come out and lay an egg in this first-round matchup.

Can they cover a huge spread though?

Duke Blue Devils Odds

Duke is a statistically pleasing team. The Blue Devils led the ACC in offensive and defensive efficiency, essentially blowing through the regular season.

However, I was not impressed by Duke.

The ACC was absolute trash this season. It was the least impressive version of the ACC we’ve had in decades.

And Duke didn’t really dominate the conference. The Blue Devils let too many teams hang around, consistently played down to competition, and eventually were knocked off by the Hokies in the ACC final.

The perimeter defense is suspect. The Devils don’t really pressure the ball or force turnovers, and they can look a little lackadaisical at times.

Duke makes up for it on the offensive end, where it runs faster than everyone else. Duke is also led by Paolo Banchero, who is a true alpha and an offensive stud. He’s eyeing up the No. 1 overall pick, and this is the perfect event to showcase his talents.

However, I am not bullish on Duke’s prospects in this tournament. I think the draw is tough, and I think the Blue Devils are criminally overvalued.

Cal State Fullerton Titans Odds

Fullerton isn’t particularly strong in any area. But the Titans are disciplined. CSF finished first in the Big West in both free-throw rate and free-throw rate allowed, not fouling while drawing plenty of fouls themselves.

That was huge in the Titans’ Big West tournament run. Over the three-game stretch, the Titans shot 57 free-throws while allowing just 30 to its opponents. In a one-point title-game win over LBSU, that looms large.

But will that be enough to keep up with Duke?

That will depend on pace. CSF plays at the 240th-fastest pace nationally and was bottom-100 nationally in percentage of shots in transition and percentage of shots in transition allowed. This team wants to play in the half-court.

If CSF can keep Duke out of the open court, there’s a chance the Titans keep it inside the big number.

Otherwise, I can’t see where the Titans have any advantage. Especially with how undersized they are.

Duke vs Cal State Fullerton Odds

All the action is one-sided. Duke is getting 84% of the tickets at the time of this writing, and that always makes me suspicious about a team.

But CSF is getting a bit of smart money. Almost 40% of the money is on the Titans at the time of this writing. That really intrigues me.

KenPom makes this spread only 14. And although this line opened at Duke -17 and got pushed to -19, I think it’s time to buy back on Cal State Fullerton.

This is a game you bet the underdog and look away. Just hope we sneak inside the number at the end. Good luck!

March Madness Bracket