Duke vs Clemson: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/10/22)

Duke vs Clemson Betting Odds

As we near the end of Coach K’s illustrious career, we can be thankful that we got two more embarrassing home-court losses out of him.

The most recent one was beautiful. Tony Bennett went into Cameron Indoor and coached circles around the five-time National Champion. Reece Beekman also hit an amazing last-second shot to take down the ranked Blue Devils.

REECE BEEKMAN STUNS DUKE! pic.twitter.com/9mY0dpMfuM

— Heat Check CBB (@HeatCheckCBB) February 8, 2022

But at least Duke isn’t Clemson.

The Tigers are coming off two straight losses and have now dropped to 4-8 in ACC play. This is a bad conference, and Clemson continues to suffer bad loss after bad loss.

But Clemson doesn’t have to beat the hungry Blue Devils, it just has to stay inside a lofty spread as a home dog.

Do we take the bait and bet the Tigers? Or do we roll with the favored Blue Devils on Thursday night?

Duke Blue Devils Odds

This is a good Duke team. One that’s 24th nationally in both offensive eFG% (55%) and defensive eFG% (45.3%). Paolo Banchero is a stud that’s scoring 17.2 points per game, and there are plenty of secondary options (Wendell Moore, Trevor Keels, AJ Griffin).

Mark Williams might be the most important Blue Devil. When the big man is playing well – particularly on defense – the Blue Devils are hard to stop.

However, this doesn’t feel like a truly dominant Duke team. The Blue Devils are first in the ACC in defensive efficiency but are due for some negative shooting regression on that end. Meanwhile, they’re 12th in the conference in offensive turnover rate.

Duke also doesn’t pressure the ball much, ranking 11th in the conference in steal rate and sub-250 in defensive turnover rate.

This feels like a Duke team that is soft and exploitable in areas. Virginia shot 2-for-12 from 3 in its win over the Blue Devils but dominated on the interior with down screens, back screens, and more down screens.

Duke had to go zone to try and stop the “vaunted” Virginia offense.

It’s also tough to play in the ACC this season because the conference is really awful. Duke has two impressive wins this season, but both came in non-conference play – over Kentucky and Gonzaga.

Duke is 9-3 in conference play and tied atop the conference with Notre Dame. But that title carries significantly less weight than in previous seasons. Therefore, Duke looks weaker than in previous seasons.

Clemson Tigers Odds

Following a tough home loss to North Carolina, Clemson has now dropped to 4-8 in conference play. The Tigers are also 80th in the NET rankings. Any at-large that Clemson had are now gone.

Clemson doesn’t do anything really well. The team is efficient on offense but due for major shooting regression from 3 (38.4 3P% is 14th nationally). PJ Hall is the major offensive threat but has just a 108 ORtg on the season on his 15 points per game. Clemson took care of the ball in non-conference play but is now ninth in ACC play in offensive turnover rate.

Defensively, Clemson is solid on the boards but is giving up an effective field goal percentage over 53% in conference play. Clemson is also small on the interior and can be exposed by imposing frontcourts.

For example, Armando Bacot put up 24 points, 10 rebounds, and three assists in North Carolina’s win over Clemson.

The outlook for the Tigers is low. Brad Brownell is a decent coach and has led Clemson to some solid seasons, but he’s only made the NCAA Tournament three times in his 11-year tenure.

Don’t expect him to make it four this season.

Duke vs Clemson Prediction and Pick

My pick: Clemson +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

I hate this pick.

But if I’m going to pick a side on this game, I’m going to take the home dog desperate for a signature win.

Clemson has defeated three top-100 KenPom teams this season but is still 0-3 in Quad 1 opportunities. A win over Duke would make the Tigers’ season.

I don’t expect them to get that win, but 7.5 points is too many in this battle.

Plus, the ACC is an awful conference. No team should be laying this many points in this conference, and I’ll be betting underdogs in the ACC through the conference tournament.