Duke vs. Florida State: Prediction & Odds (10/21/23)

Duke vs. Florida State kicks off this Saturday at 7:30pm EST in Tallahassee Florida as a home game for the Seminoles. Duke is currently a +14 underdog and +480 on the moneyline while the total is set at 49.5. Read on for more Duke vs. Florida State best bets and predictions as defense takes center stage in a clash geared towards the under.

Duke Vs. Florida State Prediction & Best Bet

While it’s widely regarded that Florida State will lock up a spot in the ACC Conference Championship as the conference powerhouse, there’s still one more spot available for someone to grab. One of those teams vying for the position is Duke, a Blue Devil squad that is 5-1 with their lone loss out of conference and a tiebreaker over Clemson in their back pocket.

Even though the spread implies that this is the Seminoles game to lose, it may be closer than it foretells as both units are in a position to limit each other’s downfield progression. Especially with question marks surrounding Duke’s quarterback position as Riley Leonard has been downgraded from questionable to doubtful. Without Leonard, Duke’s offense has been a shell of their former selves.

Without Leonard, the Duke pass attack has slowly faltered from their above average passing metrics. That spells doom for them as they already struggle to establish the run, ranking a lowly 70th in Rush Success Rate. Without a consistent passing presence to lean on, Florida State will get the ability to shadow the box in an effort to disguise their open field tackling issues. With more bodies near the playmaker, breaking an explosive play will be tough to come by for Duke.

Speaking of Florida State, they face one of their toughest defensive tests yet as Duke’s defense has strung together some impressive performances. The metrics back that sentiment up as the Blue Devils currently rank 39th in overall Def Success Rate, 14th in Def Explosiveness, sixth Points per Opportunity, and 48th in Havoc. The Def Points per Opportunity is especially vital as they excel at limiting points on the board inside the 20 while the Seminoles rank 17th in that regard when on offense.

Florida State’s offense may seem daunting, but they actually struggle to generate mid field rushing success by ranking 97th in Rush Success Rate. That brings ease to us under backers as Duke’s defensive weakness is limiting the run, basing their success off their ability to limit the pass attack. The Blue Devils currently rank third in Def Pass PPA, 18th in Def Pass Success Rate, and third in Def Explosiveness. This halts the Seminoles drives, as well as bleed time off the clock should they try and exploit the weak Duke rush attack to no avail.

Duke Vs. Florida State Prediction & Best Bet: Under 49.5

Duke Vs. Florida State Betting Odds

Even with Duke fielding a defense more than capable of halting the Florida State offense, oddsmakers still lean heavily towards the Seminoles favor by opening them as a -16.5 favorite. Bettors believe that number opened way too high, backing the Blue Devils down to +13.5 as of writing. A shocking drop off, blasting through the key number of 14 with no signs of slowing down.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 51.5. Bettors were quick to pounce on the under, taking the total down to as low as 48.5 in some shops. The key number of 49 is still available in most shops so be sure to have as many books as you can in an effort to always buy the best number available.

Duke Vs. Florida State Key Matchups

Can Duke’s second level of the defense slow down Jordan Travis?

Jordan Travis Vs. Duke’s Linebackers

It’s tough enough for any defense in today’s football to slow down an elite pass attack, let alone having to do so while keeping an eye on a dual threat quarterback. That is exactly what Duke’s defense will have to deal with as Jordan Travis can take off and hit the open field at a moment’s notice.

Luckily for Duke, their secondary is more than capable of holding their own. Especially if Johnny Wilson sits this one out, allowing the secondary to throw more shadow coverage at Keon Coleman. That allows the Duke linebackers to anchor the middle and spy Travis, stopping him in his tracks as he tries to bounce out of the pocket.

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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