Duke vs. Louisville tips off this Tuesday (01/23/24) at 7:00pm EST in Louisville Kentucky as a home game for the Cardinals. Get Duke vs. Louisville predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on Duke’s team total under 82.5 as their shooting takes a dip when on the road.
Duke Vs. Louisville Prediction
After looking like they figured out their offensive identity by slotting in Jared McCain as a starter for more perimeter firepower, the Duke Blue Devils fell hard on their face with a recent loss to Pittsburgh. They now get a bounce back opportunity against the Louisville Cardinals.
As a whole, Duke ranks 27th in Effective Field Goal Percentage by shooting 55.3% per Team Rankings. That number slightly ticks up to 58.8% when at home and drops down to 48.4% when on the road. A big reason for their overall dip in shooting percentage comes from the perimeter, where they shoot just 31.7% from the field on the road compared with 37.9% on the season.
The major drop off in shooting production creates a massive swing for Louisville’s defense as they get the opportunity to dare Duke into beating them from deep and sag back into the paint. By selling out for more interior coverage, this will slow down star big man Kyle Filipowski who has been Duke’s lone consistent source of scoring. With Filipowski now in a position to struggle, Duke’s offense as a whole may sputter to the benefit of their team total under.
Playing as a one-dimensional offense was a major issue for Duke last year, and now it looks like they will revert back to their old bad habits. Kyle Filipowski can only do so much as their go-to scoring big, needing the help from his guards in order to stretch the floor to give him more room to work with. Duke has done a phenomenal job with facilitating while also limiting turnovers, though their passing is prone for a dip in production against a crowded interior as well. Even against a defense that ranks 243rd in AdjD per Kenpom, expect Duke to continue to struggle on the road.
Duke Vs. Louisville Prediction: Duke team total under 82.5
Duke Vs. Louisville Best Odds
Even though Duke may take a step back in production, this is still their game to lose as oddsmakers opened the Blue Devils as a -14 favorite. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the number, keeping the spread the same as of writing. Until Duke can round back into form with their shooting then they are a pass on the number.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 156. Bettors believe points will come at a drastically slower pace, backing the under down to as low as 149.5 in some shops. The under steam is heavily correlated with Duke’s struggles when on the road as they fail to generate any sort of offensive consistency.
Duke Vs. Louisville Key Matchups
Can Louisville limit Duke’s second chance opportunities?
Battle on the Boards
It’s not just enough to limit Duke’s shooting production in order to cash their team total under, Louisville will also need to limit their second chance opportunities as that can quickly burn an under as well. Not only does this limit scoring, but it also bleeds more time off the clock between buckets as Louisville goes through an offensive possession of their own.
Luckily for the Cardinals, Duke is a poor offensive rebounding team as they come into the contest ranked 207th in Offensive Rebounds per Game. That is in large part of running relatively small, sacrificing size for guard play which limits their ability to haul in rebounds. Especially when Filipowski settles for an outside shot as a stretch big, limiting his chance of success of crashing the boards against a clogged lane.
North Carolina Sports Betting Update
North Carolina sports betting is currently legal and set to go live within the next five months. Early reports from state legislators say that the goal is to have it up and running by March Madness, though no date has been set. Once sports betting is live and up and running, North Carolina residents will be able to take advantage of new user bonuses like a $1,000 first bet bonus from Caesars North Carolina and a 20% deposit match offer of up to $1,000 in bonus bets from DraftKings North Carolina to wager on their teams.
For up-to-date North Carolina sports betting coverage — including the best new user promo codes — check out the “NC Sports Betting” tab on Lineups.
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