Duke vs North Carolina: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/5/22)

Duke vs North Carolina Betting Odds

Many say that Duke-UNC is the best rivalry in college hoops. It’s been a wild ride between these two ACC foes.

A few things are different this year. Roy Williams is gone while Coach K is retiring after this season.

But some things stay the same. This game will decide who is in first place in the ACC.

Duke is laying three points in this road matchup in Chapel Hill. But are we betting on Coach K as a road favorite? Or is it time to strike with Hubert Davis at home?

Duke Blue Devils Odds

Duke gets the same attention it does every year.

However, the Blue Devils are getting more attention than ever this season, as the Coach K retirement tour has taken the life out of every college basketball fan outside of Durham.

However, this year’s version of Duke is very talented.

The Blue Devils are top-15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils are also top-25 in both offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage.

One area where the Blue Devils have been particularly effective is in defending free throws. Duke is first nationally in opponent free-throw rate and opponents are hitting those opportunities at just a 65% clip.

The former stat is because of Duke’s ability to avoid fouls. However, the Blue Devils are likely due for regression in the latter stat.

Everything for Duke revolves around Paolo Banchero, the 6-foot-10 stud who is scoring 18 points per game with an effective field goal percentage above 54%.

But the most important Duke player is Mark Williams. The 7-foot big man has stepped up in recent games and his value cannot be overstated. Williams has a 131.8 ORtg (21st nationally) and ranks top-50 in offensive rebounding rate. He’s a game-changer on the interior and creates a solid inside-outside combination with Banchero.

North Carolina Tar Heels Odds

North Carolina is funny.

Armando Bacot and Brady Manek create one of the best backcourts in college hoops. The two are combining for 30 points and 19 rebounds per game, and the Tar Heels are third nationally in rebounding rate as a result.

But the interior offensive presence hasn’t been there. The Heels are sub-200 in 2-point shooting (49.1%).

Meanwhile, Caleb Love leads a backcourt that’s 15th in 3-point shooting (38.5%) and top-50 in offensive turnover rate.

But the Heels’ perimeter defense is garbage. The Tar Heels are bad at defending in transition, bad at defending the pick-and-roll, and average at defending spot-up opportunities.

However, UNC’s defensive presence has been better in recent weeks. The Tar Heels have snuck up to fourth in conference-only defensive efficiency.

But it’s a bit discombobulated at times. The talent is clearly there, and Bacot is one of the best big men in college hoops. But the pieces haven’t always fit together perfectly.

I would likely blame that on the coaching transition. Coach Davis is a good coach but being the man to replace Williams in Chapel Hill is synonymous with replacing Tom Brady in New England. It will be a long road for Davis.

Duke vs North Carolina Prediction and Pick

My pick: Duke -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

As much as I want to bet UNC as a home dog, I can’t with first place in the ACC on the line.

North Carolina has too many holes in the team to compete with a complete team like Duke. I also believe Banchero is going to have a field day against a lackadaisical UNC perimeter defense.

Meanwhile, I’m expecting a trending-up Williams to neutralize Bacot on the interior.

This feels like a great spot for Duke to roll. I’ll take the Blue Devils up to -5.