Duke vs. Oregon State Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/24/22)

Duke is undergoing an identity transition this season, with an influx of new talent and of course a new head coach in Jon Scheyer. It’s tough to gauge where they are right now – the Blue Devils’ only real test was a narrow loss to Kansas. Will Oregon State be any kind of test on Thanksgiving? The Beavers are fighting to bounce back after an ugly 2021-22 season.

Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for Thursday’s Thanksgiving matchup.

Duke vs. Oregon State Odds

Duke enters as a 18.5-point favorite in this neutral site event.

The good news for Oregon State: They’ve already matched their win total from last season. The bad news: They went 3-28 last season. 3-1 is nice, but the Beavers are coming off a loss to Portland State and don’t look like they’re ready to be in the same realm as NCAA Tournament contenders (let alone the Duke). Is the spread large enough to consider Oregon State here?

Duke vs. Oregon State Prediction & Pick

Duke is very much a work in progress relative to where they want to be, but a work in progress for the Blue Devils is better than what most teams in the nation can do at their best. So far, Duke has wins by 27 (Jacksonville State), 46 (SC Upstate), 34 (Delaware), and 17 (Bellarmine).

By all accounts, Oregon State might be somewhere between Jacksonville State and Bellarmine. The Beavers are shooting just 25% from the field this season despite playing games against Florida A&M and Bushnell. They’ve lost the turnover battle against every team other than Florida A&M, which has gotten trounced in each of its four games against D1 competition. Duke’s talent and athleticism should run circles around Oregon State – enough to cover -18.5.

Duke vs. Oregon State Key Matchups

Duke hasn’t exactly stood out in many categories to this point, but it’s not surprising the Blue Devils are still trying to find their identity. It hasn’t slowed them down against inferior competition.

What Duke has done very well is rebound. The Blue Devils have significantly out-rebounded teams this season, even out-rebounding Kansas by 11 in the loss. Kyle Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, and Ryan Young are all averaging north of five rebounds per game, and the entire roster is loaded with capable rebounders. Duke isn’t going to let Oregon State get many second chances, and it’s tough to see the Beavers thriving with limited opportunities.

It’ll be interesting to see how much of a role five-star freshman Dariq Whitehead will have after averaging 12.5 minutes over his first two games. He’s struggled mightily on the offensive end but is bound to put it together at some point. The consequence of Duke’s size is its lack of shooting. The Blue Devils didn’t have a single player make more than one three-pointer in the loss to Kansas.

That’s more of a long-term issue, though. Duke shot 40% from behind the arc in the win over Bellarmine and got multiple threes out of five different players – including a 4-of-7 performance from transfer Jacob Grandison. For all of their issues, the Blue Devils have still out-shot Oregon State this season and should continue to do so.

Freshman guard Jordan Pope might be the player to watch for Oregon State. He’s gotten off to a hot start, averaging 15.5 points and shooting 40% from beyond the arc. The competition hasn’t been strong, but as far as freshmen go, that’s a promising opening month. Forward Glenn Taylor Jr. has been the early leader for the Beavers, averaging 16.3 points and helping to make up for the rest of the group’s poor shooting ability by scoring in the paint.

Oregon State is a decent rebounding team and averages 5.5 blocks per game, so the one positive in this matchup is that the Beavers shouldn’t be overpowered by Duke’s size. In terms of talent and athleticism, however, it’s a mismatch.

Dan is a lifelong sports fan and graduate of Boston University. He’s covered several sports on Instagram since he was 12 and now writes about everything from betting trends to breaking news for Lineups.

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