Duke vs Syracuse: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/26/22)

Duke vs Syracuse Betting Odds

Duke-Syracuse. Coach K-Coach Boeheim for possibly the last time. I am happy to get this game on a Saturday.

Sadly, Syracuse has not been the Orange of old. The Orange have put together a small bubble run, winning six of the last eight games. But it’s also lost to Virginia Tech and Notre Dame while beating up on the rest of the pathetic ACC.

Meanwhile, Duke is in line for a two-seed in the Big Dance but hasn’t looked particularly amazing. The Blue Devils almost dropped its second straight game to Virginia and only managed to beat Wake Forest by two. The seventh-ranked Blue Devils are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.

So, can the Blue Devils take advantage of a weak Syracuse team? Or will Jim Boeheim pull some more magic to get back in the NCAA tournament?

Duke Blue Devils Odds

Duke does a lot of things well.

The Blue Devils run the floor efficiently, shoot the ball well, and share the ball well. The squad is also led by a top-tier player in Paolo Banchero.

But while Banchero leads the team in scoring, he’s probably not Duke’s most important player.

I’d say Mark Williams is. His rim protection (10th nationally in block rate) and ability to grab offensive boards (top-50 nationally in offensive rebounding rate) give the Blue Devils a desperately needed interior presence. Plus, his 137.6 ORtg is the highest on the team and second-highest nationally.

Mark Williams with the double swat. Those arms go forever pic.twitter.com/yL74WjznlG

— Draft Dummies (@DraftDummies) February 24, 2022

Freshman Trevor Keels has been awesome out of the backcourt as well, playing well above his means.

Add in a couple of athletic scoring wings in Wendell Moore and AJ Griffin to round out the roster, and Coach K has a complete team on his hands.

I just don’t believe in Duke. The Blue Devils have never looked dominant this season, and they continually let teams hang around. Moreover, the ACC is so bad that I believe Duke is rather overvalued. Duke is just 76th nationally in the strength of schedule this season.

Syracuse Orange Odds

I don’t remember a time the Syracuse defense was this bad.

Boeheim’s zone has now fallen to 192nd in defensive efficiency and eighth in the ACC. The Orange’s effective field goal percentage allowed has steadily decreased since the start of conference play, but that’s only because teams are missing open 3-point looks.

On the interior, the Orange can’t rebound, don’t defend inside the arc, and are forcing turnovers at one of the lowest rates in the ACC.

Thank goodness for the Orange backcourt, or this team would be dead. Joseph Girard, Buddy Boeheim, and Jimmy Boeheim continue to shoot the lights out, combining for 45 points per game.

Buddy hasn’t been the same firecracker he was in the tournament last season, as his 3-point percentage has fallen to 33.3%. But he’s still dangerous and is liable to score 20+ points on any given night.

However, he only scored seven points in the Orange’s earlier-season meeting with Duke, going 2-for-15 from the field and 1-for-10 from 3. He’ll need a huge bounce-back game for the Orange to have a chance against Duke.

Duke vs Syracuse Prediction and Pick

My Pick: Syracuse +6 or better

I will happily grab six points with the Orange as a home dog. Especially against a team I don’t believe in.

Duke has also failed to cover in four of its last five wins, with three of those losses coming as a road favorite.

Duke is going to want to attack the rim, as the Blue Devils are sub-300 nationally in 3-point rate. But we know the Syracuse zone will try to force you into shooting the 3. Duke probably won’t budge that easily.

Moreover, does Duke have a zone-buster? Mark Williams is more of a pure post player. Everyone else plays more on the perimeter and tries to slash. Duke is just average in cutting frequency but is top-50 nationally in isolation frequency.

Duke probably wins this game, but I’m not trusting Coach K and co. in this situation.