Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Player Props & Picks (12/10/23)

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Eagles vs. Cowboys Player Prop Picks

The Dallas Cowboys (9-3) host their NFC East rivals the Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) on Sunday Night Football this weekend (12/10/23). The Eagles are looking to bounce back from an ugly loss to the 49ers last week, while the Cowboys need to win this game to maintain their hopes of winning the division. The stakes are huge for both teams, and we expect both teams to bring their “A” game.

This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Eagles vs. Cowboys player prop bets for what should be another epic rivalry game.

Dak Prescott over 295 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Dak Prescott is playing like an MVP right now and could emerge from this game as the clear frontrunner if he has a big game and the Cowboys win. While the second part didn’t play out when these teams met in week 9, with the Eagles winning 28-23, Prescott did have a big game with 374 passing yards and three touchdowns.

Over his last 7 games, Prescott is averaging over 310 passing yards, completing over 70% of his passes, and leading the league with a 121.5 passer rating. He is also leading the league in EPA per dropback and CPOE (completion percentage over expected) over that span. He has thrown for over 295 passing yards in 5 of his last 6 games (including that previous Eagles game) and has hit the over on his passing yards prop in 8 of his 12 games this season.

Not only has Prescott been excellent, but he has a dream matchup against an Eagles pass defense that is struggling mightily right now. Over their last 5 games, the Eagles are allowing over 320 passing yards per game and the 3rd-highest passer rating at 103.9. They are 31st in EPA allowed per dropback over that span and overall this season they are 24th in DVOA and 25th in EPA against the pass. They also could be missing their cornerback Darius Slay in this game, as he missed the first two practices of the week with a knee injury.

This is a smash play for Prescott in this matchup. We were tempted to be a bit more aggressive and play the alt line of 325+ passing yards at +178 odds, but opted to play it safer and just take this number. It’s also worth noting that FanDuel has the best line on this prop bet as of this writing; most other sportsbooks have the line at 301.5 with equivalent odds.

CeeDee Lamb 110+ alt receiving yards (+154 at FanDuel)

Let’s go ahead and pair our Prescott passing yards over bet with his favorite pass catcher. CeeDee Lamb has been absolutely unstoppable this season. He is currently 2nd in the league in receiving yards with 98.5 per game and he is 3rd in receptions at 7.5 per game.

The last time these teams played, Lamb’s receiving yards prop line was 76.5, and we recommended being more aggressive than that and betting an alt line of 90+ receiving yards. It turns out we were not nearly aggressive enough, as he ended up going off for 11 catches and a career-high 191 yards. Now his prop line is set at 90.5, and once again we are recommending a more aggressive bet of 110+ alt receiving yards at the much more attractive +154 odds at FanDuel.

Lamb has at least 110 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games and he is averaging over 117 yards per game during that span. He is currently leading the league in yards from the slot for the second-consecutive season, and his prowess over the middle of the field is a big reason why we are so high on him in this matchup.

The Eagles are extremely vulnerable over the middle of the field and have been torched by slot receivers all season. Part of the reason for that is that their top slot cornerback Avonte Maddox is out for the season, and his replacements have not been good enough. The Eagles signed veteran Bradley Roby to help shore up that position, and he has been better than their other options, but still has not been great.

Roby missed the last Cowboys game, and the Eagles chose to move their top CB Darius Slay into the slot to match up with Lamb after he was abusing the other players they tried in that position (undrafted rookie CB Eli Ricks and rookie safety Sydney Brown). Slay was slightly better, but still struggled and was playing out of position. Slay is also questionable for this game with a knee injury, so barring a herculean effort from Roby, the Eagles are unlikely to have any better answers for Lamb this time around.

A.J. Brown over 6.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)

We are all about finding player prop bets we like with plus odds, and this is another great value in this game. We expect the Eagles to lean heavily on Jalen Hurts’ arm in this game. Not only is it likely that the defense will struggle again and the Eagles will need to throw to keep up, but they have also been struggling to run the ball effectively recently. In such a crucial game, they are going to rely on their most effective weapon offensively, and that’s A.J. Brown.

Brown has at least 7 receptions in 8 of his 12 games this season, including 7 against Dallas back in week 9, and he is averaging 6.8 receptions per game on the season. After a couple of quiet games in a row, Brown was one of the lone bright spots against the 49ers last week, catching 7 passes for 114 yards.

The Cowboys’ pass defense has been excellent this season, but it has started to show some cracks over the last few weeks. They have allowed at least 7 receptions to an opposing wide receiver in three consecutive games and just allowed a season-high 334 passing yards to Geno Smith last week.

This is a high number to clear, but one that Brown has consistently exceeded this season, so getting this bet at plus money is a solid value.

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