Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys: Expert Same Game Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football (12/10/23)
We have an epic rivalry game with huge playoff implications on Sunday Night Football this week (12/10/23) as the Dallas Cowboys (9-3) host the Philadelphia Eagles (10-2). These teams played a down-to-the-wire thriller back in week 9, with the Eagles prevailing 28-23 in Philadelphia. Now the Cowboys need to win this game to maintain any hope of winning the NFC East, while the Eagles are looking for a big bounce-back performance after getting demolished by the 49ers last week.
This article recommends an Eagles vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay featuring a spread pick and player props involving Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. We built our SGP on DraftKings, but we encourage you to always shop around for the best odds before you place any wagers. Let’s get to it.
Eagles vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay Picks
Cowboys -3 (-125)
As we covered in our matchup preview, we like the Cowboys in this matchup. The Eagles’ pass defense has really been struggling recently, and last week’s meltdown against the 49ers was just an exclamation mark on what has been a vulnerable aspect of the team all season. The Eagles’ defense is 21st in DVOA and 27th in EPA this season, and they are 31st in EPA over their last five games.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ offense is 8th in DVOA and 3rd in EPA, and over their last seven games they lead the league in EPA by a wide margin. They have also won 14 consecutive home games and the Eagles have not won in Dallas since 2017 and have not swept the Cowboys since 2011.
We are starting our Same Game Parlay with this spread pick and basing our whole parlay on the expectation that the Cowboys’ offense will be basically unstoppable in this game. We were tempted to be a bit more aggressive and take an alternate spread like -5.5 to juice up the odds, but decided to play it a bit safer since this is a parlay. That’s why instead of taking the standard spread of -3.5 at -105, we are paying for the hook and taking the alternate spread at -3.
Dak Prescott 325+ passing yards (+140)
Following that narrative of the Cowboys’ offense leading the way in this game, the next leg of our Same Game Parlay focuses on the hottest QB in the league right now. Prescott is playing like an MVP right now and will likely be the betting favorite for the award if he has a big game in a Cowboys victory (he is currently 2nd in the odds behind Brock Purdy).
Over his last seven games, Prescott is averaging over 310 passing yards, completing over 70% of his passes, and leading the league with a 121.5 passer rating. He is also leading the league in EPA per dropback and CPOE (completion percentage over expected) over that span. When the Eagles and Cowboys played back in week 9, Prescott threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns.
The Eagles are allowing over 320 passing yards per game and the 3rd-highest passer rating (103.9) over their last five games. Three of the last four quarterbacks they have faced (Purdy, Josh Allen and Sam Howell) have thrown for over 300 passing yards against them, and two of those (Allen and Howell) went for over 325 yards. Purdy probably would have done the same if the game was more competitive.
We are being pretty aggressive by picking an alternate line for this parlay after playing it a bit more conservative in our player props article, where we went with Prescott’s official line of 295 yards at FanDuel. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to be more in a parlay, especially after making a safer spread pick, but that’s how confident we are in Prescott’s expectations in this game, and we want to juice up the odds on this SGP as much as possible.
After the first two legs, the full odds of our SGP are at +335.
CeeDee Lamb 110+ alt receiving yards (+160)
We’re going to tail another pick from our player props article that is nicely correlated with the Prescott passing yards pick. The Eagles had no answer for CeeDee Lamb back in week 9, when the talented receiver went off for 11 catches and a career-high 191 receiving yards. He also had a big game when these teams played in Dallas last year, catching 10 passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns.
One of the main reasons Lamb has torched the Eagles recently is that the Cowboys are lining him up almost exclusively in the slot to exploit the Eagles’ weak coverage over the middle of the field. The Eagles slot CB Avonte Maddox is one of the best in the league at that position, but he got hurt early in the game last season and suffered another injury earlier this year that was likely season-ending.
The Eagles have not found an adequate replacement for Maddox. After Lamb torched the best options they had last time, they moved Darius Slay from the outside to cover Lamb in the slot. He was better than what they had before, but still struggled while playing out of position, and he is also dealing with a knee injury and can’t be counted on to slow down Lamb.
Lamb is leading the league in receiving yards from the slot for the second-consecutive season, and he should feast against this porous Eagles pass defense. He is currently 2nd in the league in receiving yards, averaging 98.5 per game, and he has over 110 yards in 5 of his last 7 games. That trend will continue this week as he helps Prescott to reach 325+ passing yards.
This leg brings the full odds on our SGP to +625. We have been aggressive enough with these last two picks and we’re happy with those odds on a 3-leg parlay, but here are some other options we like to add a 4th leg, along with the individual odds on that leg and the full odds if you use it to create a 4-leg parlay:
- Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (-140) — +1200 SGP
- Game total over 52 points (-110) — +900 SGP
- Cowboys team total over 27.5 points (-112) — +800 SGP
Same Game Parlay Card For Eagles vs. Cowboys
- Cowboys -3 (-125)
- Dak Prescott 325+ passing yards (+140)
- CeeDee Lamb 110+ receiving yards (+160)
Full SGP odds:+625 (a winning $10 bet pays out $72.50)