Get Eagles vs. Jets player prop picks & odds for the (10/15/23) matchup
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Eagles vs. Jets Player Prop Picks
The New York Jets (2-3) host the Philadelphia Eagles (5-0) at 4:25 p.m. ET this Sunday (10/15/23). This matchup features two tough defenses which might mean betting on the under on NFL player props, but the Eagles’ offense has also been hot recently and some key players on both teams are missing the game because of injury.
Let’s take a look at some of the best player prop bets for this Eagles vs. Jets matchup.
DeVonta Smith over 4.5 receptions (-105 at BetMGM)
It’s his turn.
After DeVonta Smith had only 1 catch against the Rams last week, the Eagles are going to make a concerted effort to get him the ball against the Jets this week. Coach Nick Sirianni has made a habit of doing that for his star players during his tenure in Philadelphia. He’s not hiding it either.
#Eagles coach Nick Sirianni on Philly’s squeaky wheel philosophy
We’ve seen concerted efforts to get the ball into the hands of Dallas Goedert, D’Andre Swift, and A.J. Brown after down games this year
Week 6 may be DeVonta Smith’s turn after he recorded just one catch for six… pic.twitter.com/JLFSACUDXP
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 12, 2023
Sirianni acknowledges in that clip that it doesn’t always work out for certain players to get the ball when they’re trying to feed them, depending on what the defense is doing. But he also acknowledges that they do try to do that, which we have seen in the past when Smith himself as well as A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert have been targeted heavily early in games after unusually quiet games the week before.
This is also a favorable matchup for Smith to be heavily involved because Jets #2 CB D.J. Reed has been ruled out for this game. It’s worth noting that star CB Sauce Gardner is also questionable for the game, which means that A.J. Brown could also have favorable matchups if Gardner misses the game. But if he doesn’t, then Brown will have a much harder time getting open than Smith will, which means more targets will be heading Smith’s way.
Smith has been remarkably consistent when it comes to racking up catches. He had at least 5 catches in 15 of his 20 games last season including 8 of his final 9. While he has only gone over 4.5 in 2 of his 5 games so far this season, he had 4 in 2 others in games in which Jalen Hurts struggled and the Eagles relied more heavily on the running game. But the Hurts’ has been much better over the last two weeks, and Smith will benefit from that this week.
D’Andre Swift over 2.5 receptions (+106 at FanDuel)
Speaking of that Eagles running game, D’Andre Swift was the biggest reason for those couple of big weeks (along with the best offensive line in football). He had 305 rushing yards on 44 carries in weeks 2 and 3 combined.
In the last 2 weeks, however, Swift has been getting much more involved in the passing game, which is where he was most effective in his first few seasons with the Lions. He has 10 catches on 10 targets in his last 2 games and is currently 9th among running backs averaging exactly 3 receptions per game. That figure is 3.5 over the last 4 weeks after he was surprisingly uninvolved in week 1.
This is also a good matchup for Swift in the receiving game. The Jets are currently allowing the fifth-most receptions to opposing running backs at 6.2 per game. They have allowed at least 3 catches to a running back in 4 of their 5 games so far this season. Just last week both Jaleel McLaughlin (3) and Samaje Perine (4) went over this number.
Expect this trend of Swift’s passing game involvement to continue this week as he goes over 2.5 receptions for the 3rd week in a row and the 4th time in 5 games. This bet becomes even more attractive when you head over to FanDuel to get it at +106 odds, which is the only sportsbook as of this writing that is offering better than even money on this D’Andre Swift player prop bet.
Breece Hall over 54.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
We also like the over on 2.5 receptions for the other starting running back in this game, which is also available at plus odds. Hall has 3 catches in back-to-back weeks as a reliable checkdown option for Zach Wilson, who is sure to be under pressure from the Eagles’ pass rush and will need to dump it off to Hall a few times.
But it would be boring to pick 3 receptions props, so let’s focus on Hall’s rushing yards instead. This is not an overreaction to his career-high 177 rushing yards against the Broncos last week. There are going to be lots of running backs that have career highs against Denver this season.
This is more of a reaction to the volume that Hall has started seeing in the Jets’ offense as they lean on the running game to take pressure off Wilson. Hall had 22 carries last week after coach Robert Saleh said that there would be no more limitations on his usage as he continues to recover from the torn ACL that cut short his rookie season last year. Those 22 carries represented a season-high 71% of the Jets’ rushing attempts as Hall has taken over as their bell cow running back.
If he even comes close to that type of workload in this game, Hall should have no problem surpassing 54.5 rushing yards. He is currently averaging 7.2 yards per carry, which is admittedly inflated by plays like this.
BREECE HALL GOES 72 YARDS FOR THE 🏠📞!pic.twitter.com/H85eeyUVos
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) October 8, 2023
Still, that play was just evidence that Hall has the type of explosiveness that he can go over this number on just 1 play. He reached a max speed of 21.5 MPH on that run, per ESPN’s Next Gen Stats. That was second-fastest max speed of any non-Dolphins ballcarrier this season.
There are two risks to consider with this pick. First, the Eagles currently have the best run defense in the league, allowing just 61.2 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry (4th). However, Breece Hall is by far the best running back they have faced so far this season (Rhamondre Stevenson, Alexander Mattison, Rachaad White, Brian Robinson Jr., and Kyren Williams).
The second risk is game script, as the Jets could be forced to abandon the run if they fall behind early, which is certainly possible against the Eagles’ explosive awful. But we like the chances for the Jets’ tough defense to keep things close for long enough that Hall will still get enough volume to hit this over pick. And as noted above, it could take just 1 play to cash.
If you’re concerned about game script, you could look at Hall’s rushing + receiving yardage prop, which is currently set at 72.5. However, we still like the rushing over as the best Breece Hall prop bet this week.