Eastern Conference Playoff X Factors: Four Players Who Affect Title Chances

X factors are not superstars like Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo, but rather role players who can play above their position on the team hierarchy and significantly impact a series. They are players who do not consistently produce great numbers; they are volatile and prone to poor nights. Every team has an X factor, or perhaps multiple, but these are four who can change their respective team identity and raise the ceiling. 

Patrick Williams – Chicago Bulls

Patrick Williams was injured in October and missed most of the season. He returned on March 21st and has looked great. In 17 games this season, he averaged 9.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 0.5 SPG, and 0.5 BPG on a 52.9 FG% and 51.7 3PT%. He won’t sustain 51.7% from three, but he did shoot 39.1% as a rookie last season in 71 games. The Bulls offense can score; however, they are 23rd in Defensive Rating. Williams is an athletic 6’7”, 215 lbs wing who can handle the bigger forwards. The Bulls have been missing this type of defender throughout the season, and he will be needed against guys like Durant, Tatum, Butler, Middleton, and Bridges. It’s been a very small sample, but Williams has been a two-way force for the Bulls. He’s in the 99th percentile for spot up offense and spaces the floor. The Bulls can surround DeRozan with four lethal shooters without sacrificing size. Williams is also in the 91st percentile for defending the pick and roll ball handler. Again, he has only played in 17 games, so the sample is small. Yet I believe these numbers will somewhat hold steady. 

We saw how he can be a game changer in their improbable comeback over the Clippers on March 31st. Williams helped make crucial defensive stops in the 4th quarter and overtime. He also sustained the Bulls lead through timely offensive plays. With 1:44 left in overtime and the Bulls up two points, Williams made a beautiful cut to the basket and dunked the ball for a four-point lead. Luke Kennard went down the court and hit a three-pointer to cut the lead to one. The Bulls subsequently found Williams in the corner for an open three, and he hit nothing but net. If Williams can continue his play – spacing the floor and defending without fouling – the Bulls can significantly raise their playoff ceiling. He is the prototype of the player they have desperately needed. 

Brook Lopez – Milwaukee Bucks

Brook Lopez injured his back in the season opener, and he returned to the court on March 14th. He’s still getting back into his shooting groove, but Lopez is a crucial cog in the Bucks lineup. In 13 games this season, he is averaging 12.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 1.2 BPG on a 46/35/87 shooting split. He hasn’t consistently hit his threes because of some rust, yet I expect him to regain his shot within the next couple of weeks. Lopez is a 7-footer who protects the rim and spaces the floor. On defense, he allows Giannis to play power forward and roam the court as an elite help defender. With centers such as Embiid, Vucevic, Allen, Adebayo, and Capela in the East, Lopez can handle the physicality and spare Giannis from being worn down in these long, grueling series. 

On offense, Lopez can station himself outside the paint and allow Giannis to dominate the paint. Lopez is the perfect center next to Giannis because he allows Giannis to play power forward on defense and center on offense. If Lopez can hit his threes and protect the paint, the Bucks look like a two-way juggernaut. Holiday, Middleton, and Giannis are elite two-way players, so adding Lopez to that equation makes them the favorite to get out of the East, if they were not that already. Lopez won’t swing a series by dropping 20 points a night, but he allows lineup flexibility and brings the best out of Giannis. The Bucks realized their potential last season because everything came together, and Lopez was a key part of that.

Duncan Robinson – Miami Heat

Duncan Robinson is who I call the most consistently inconsistent player in the NBA. You can reliably count on him to score 28 points on 7/10 from three one game and 3 points on 1/7 from three the next game. Miami can definitely still advance if Robinson doesn’t play well, but they are arguably the 2nd favorite to win the title (behind Phoenix) if Robinson is firing on all cylinders. The Heat are 29-7 this season when he shoots at least 40% from three; that record is on pace for 66 wins. He’s at 37.2 3PT% on 7.9 3PA this season, but he was a combined 42.7 3PT% on 8.4 3PA over the previous two seasons. Robinson doesn’t have much time left to recapture his shooting performance from the past two years. 

The Heat are an elite, versatile defense who own the 4th Defensive Rating. The offense, though, is inconsistent and prone to stalling at inconvenient times. Robinson will give the Heat nothing on defense, but they have enough defenders to compensate for him. Miami needs him to consistently find his scorching shot and space the floor for Butler and Bam – two non-shooters. When the Heat made their improbable run to the Finals, Robinson was terrorizing opponents by running off screens and shooting with only a sliver of space. He gives the team some juice on offense and adds a different element that opponents must account for. The Heat also have a multitude of playmakers this season who love to pass the ball. Robinson is a deadly weapon for these playmakers to use when Robinson is hot from deep. If the Heat are down 8-12 points late in the 3rd, Robinson can hit two threes and radically change the optics of the game. Miami can use Robinson’s high variance shot profile to claw its way back into a game or bust a game wide open. The floor for Miami doesn’t change whether Robinson plays well or not, but the ceiling certainly does.

Bruce Brown Jr – Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have a puncher’s chance with Durant and Irving, but they need their role players to step up if they want to realistically have a chance of going far. Bruce Brown Jr won’t put up flashy stats, but he is the key towards the Nets making a deep run. The Nets own the 10th offensive rating and have premier isolation threats in Kyrie and Durant. Seth Curry can space the floor and give them 15+ points. However, they are 20th in Defensive Rating and need defensive stoppers to limit opponents. Durant can manage the bigger forwards, but the bigger guards and smaller forwards – Jaylen Brown, Zach LaVine, James Harden, etc. – need to be stopped. Bruce Brown Jr is a 6’5” guard/forward who plays above his height. He’s in the 70th percentile at pick and roll ball handler defense and in the 74th percentile at spot up defense. Brown Jr hounds opponents and out-hustles players; he’s not as skilled as Marcus Smart, but he can fill that similar defensive role for the Nets. 

The great thing about Brown Jr is that he doesn’t negatively impact the offense. He’s scoring 9.0 PPG on a 50.6 FG% and 40.4 3PT%. Brown Jr ranks in the 74th percentile in spot up offense and the 91st percentile in transition offense. His spacing is crucial because the Nets play an absolute non-shooter at center in Andre Drummond. The offense will always have a chance against any team, but the Nets cannot advance if they keep allowing opponents to easily run their offense. Brown Jr must step up his defensive game and limit opposing guards and forwards. If he can do this, the Nets actually might be able to come out of the East.