Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames (5/26/22) Betting Odds, Prediction, Line Combination, Starting Goalies
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The Edmonton Oilers went up 3-0 in the first period of Tuesday’s Game 4 and never looked back. The Oilers now have the chance to end the Calgary Flames’ season in just five games.
This is a huge disappointment for Calgary, who stormed their way to a 111-point season and first seed in the Pacific Conference.
However, the Flames are down but not out. We just saw the Penguins blow a 3-1 lead to the Rangers, so the Oilers should tread lightly.
But how likely is that outcome?
Let’s start with the betting odds and my prediction for Thursday’s Game 5.
Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames Betting Odds
It’s surprising to see the Flames as such big favorites entering this one. The Oilers have proven they have the horses to keep up with their counterparts, and it doesn’t hurt to have the world’s best player on your roster (Connor McDavid).
But the Flames only lost nine games at home this year. Calgary is not going down without a fight.
The sharp money is coming in on Calgary. The odds have already moved slightly towards the Flames on the ML.
Edmonton Oilers Analysis
There hasn’t been a better hockey player this playoff run than McDavid, whose 25 points lead all playoff players.
However, don’t overlook Leon Draisaitl, who has been equally as effective with 22 points himself. He’s even scored one more goal than McDavid this playoff run, with his seven trailing only a few in the 2022 playoffs.
But that list includes Evander Kane, who has netted an astonishing 12 goals this playoff run. Kane scored just 22 goals in 43 games this season, so he’s stepped up in a big way for a club that is hungry for playoff success.
Plus, Mike Smith has been great on the net. His 10.1 Goals Saved Above Expected trails only Andrei Vasilevskiy during the 2022 playoff run.
All-in-all, don’t put all of the Oilers’ playoff hopes in the hands of McDavid. This team is talented and can compete on every inch of the ice.
Calgary Flames Analysis
Calgary finished fourth this season in Expected Goal Differential. After 82 games of hockey, they led second-place Edmonton by almost 50 in actual goal differential (+85 to +38).
So, to put it shortly, this has been a disappointing series.
Calgary hasn’t been unlucky, either. Money Puck puts Edmonton’s post-game win expectancy for Game 4 at 67.7%. The team has not competed to the level expected so far.
Part of that is Jacob Markstrom, who posted a -0.55 Goals Saved Above Expected mark in Game 4 and has been largely average during the playoffs.
More of it is on the goal-scorers, however. Johnny Gaudreau was a 40-goal scorer in the regular season and has mustered just two playoff goals. One was a Game 7 overtime winner, but it’s been unexpected nonetheless.
The Flames rank ninth among playoff teams so far in Expected Goal Percentage. That’s not great.
But this team was built on its defense, as the Flames allowed just 208 goals during the regular season. But during the playoffs, the Flames are sixth in Goals Against Above Expected (-4.46).
The Flames have underperformed and haven’t competed to their potential on every inch of the ice.
Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames Picks & Prediction
My pick: Calgary Flames ML (-149 at WynnBet)
But the Flames aren’t out of the series yet. I don’t expect them to bow down at a 3-1 series lead at home.
Money Puck’s formulas project the Flames to win about 57% of the time, and while there isn’t much value on the odds in that spot, I’m willing to back them in this win-or-go-home situation.
The NHL playoffs are chaos. And right when you think a team is out, their goaltender stands on his head and the team comes together in an unforeseen way.
That will happen tonight with Calgary. I’d bet the Flames at -150 or better.
Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames Starting Goalies & Line Combination
