Edmonton Oilers vs Colorado Avalanche (6/2/22) Betting Odds, Prediction, Line Combination, Starting Goalies
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This might be the best series in NHL playoff history.
The Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche combined for 14 goals in the first game. The Oilers went up 2-0, fell down 3-7, and then battled back to make it 6-7 before Colorado buried an empty netter.
It was a thrilling game involving some of hockey’s best players, from Connor McDavid to Nathan MacKinnon. And we get at least three more games of it.
Can Mike Smith and the Oilers bounce back from a pathetic defensive performance? Will Mike Smith even start this game after being pulled in Game 1?
Or, will the Avalanche roll again on their home ice? Will we get Darcy Kuemper or Pavel Francouz in net?
Let’s dive into the betting odds and my prediction for Game 2.
Edmonton Oilers vs Colorado Avalanche Betting Odds
The total is going to continue to soar and soar in this series. It’s now up to 7.5, although we’re still getting plus money with the over.
At a number this high, the market is finally starting to see some money on the under. However, 65% of the tickets are still coming in on the over.
Everyone has seen how dominant these two lineups can be, and the under may never see the majority of the tickets.
The Avalanche are holding steady as big favorites, but should Edmonton be seeing over +150 on the ML across the market?
Game 1 seemed closer than that. Let’s dive in a little more.
Edmonton Oilers Analysis
It’s so hard to overstate what Connor McDavid does for Edmonton.
He finished with three points and five hits while leading the team in ice time (24:05). Not only that, but I saw multiple moments where he could’ve tallied an extra assist. He has now tallied a whopping 28 points during this playoff run.
McDavid is the most dominant player on the ice, and he means more to his team than any player in the NHL.
In hockey, no one man has all that power. It’s the ultimate team game.
Connor McDavid is changing all that in these playoffs, dominating as if he was an NBA superstar. https://t.co/SbKNteifJT pic.twitter.com/xgSxyjYXt5
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) May 26, 2022
But, will it be enough to overcome everything else?
After a pretty solid playoff run, Mike Smith completely choked at the hands of the Avalanche offense. He finished Game 1 with a -3.49 Goals Saved Above Expected mark. While the Avalanche employ a series of snipers, and the team finished third in Goals Scored Above Expected this season, Smith posted an unforgivable mark for a team that almost stole home ice.
The good news: The Oilers did win the faceoff battle. For a possession-heavy team like the Avalanche, it’s pretty important to not give them extra possessions. Hopefully, that trend continues.
Colorado Avalanche Analysis
The Avalanche did what they do in Game 1. They got the puck in the slot, hammered a ton of shots (Colorado out-shot Edmonton 47-to-37), and their snipers buried pucks past the goalkeeper.
MacKinnon is usually the guy to snipe, as he finished with 1.30 Goals per 60 minutes this season despite his .87 Expected Goals Per 60 minutes. MacKinnon did score beautifully on a breakaway:
https://twitter.com/mrmatthewcfb/status/1531799672184004614?s=21
But it was left-winger J.T. Comper who scored twice in the match. And in total, seven Avalanche skaters scored. What a team effort.
Kuemper struggled, but he wasn’t as bad as Smith. He finished with -1.38 Goals Saved Above Expected in the first half, and Francouz definitely played better with more ice time. But all-in-all, both goalies allowed just three goals.
It’s important to note that Kuemper was pulled due to injury, not due to poor play. There’s been no update there, but I wouldn’t project Francouz to be much worse than Kuemper, and therefore it’s not the biggest deal.
Edmonton Oilers vs Colorado Avalanche Picks & Prediction
My pick: Over 7 (-130 at WynnBet Sportsbook)
There’s just one total of 7 across the market now, at that’s over at Wynn.
Grab it now before it’s too late.
There are too many goal scorers on both teams. One of the team’s goalies is dealing with an injury. The other team’s goalie seems downright broken.
We should see close to seventy shots again and likely a positive Goals Socred Above Expected mark.
Even if we don’t get another 8-6 thriller, I’d easily expect a 5-3 or 6-4 finish.
But it’s important to get the 7 number so that a 4-3 finish would result in a push.
Edmonton Oilers vs Colorado Avalanche Starting Goalies & Line Combination
