Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets NFL Player Props & Picks (12/3/23)
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Both the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets are sitting below .500, but the postseason isn’t out of reach for either; they just have to start winning right now. There’s plenty of talent on both sides, like Bijan Robinson for the Falcons and Quincy Williams for the Jets, so let’s see who will be the hero and have a big day with some Falcons vs. Jets player prop picks and odds for their matchup this Sunday (12/3/23).
Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown (+138)
Anytime you can get a team’s lead rusher in plus-money to score when his team is favored, that’s going to be something to at least take a look at. When it’s someone as talented as Robinson, it’s a borderline must-play. This prop was a tough one to evaluate earlier in the season, as Robinson’s role was a bit undefined, especially near the goal line, but after finally scoring his first rushing touchdown a few weeks ago, he’s picked one up in three of his last four games.
Robinson’s overall workload is clearly increasing, as he’s rushed the ball 38 times in the past two games after accumulating just 36 totes in the previous four contests. That stretch does include the game where he confusingly racked up just one carry, but the trend still stands; the last two games were among his highest-volume performances yet.
It may seem like a risky proposition to bet against the Jets defense, which has been one of the league’s better units for much of this season, but there’s reason to believe that Robinson will have some good opportunities in this one. The Falcons have the third-best run blocking line as per PFF, so they can pave the way against just about anyone, while the Jets rank just 17th in DVOA against the run. New York is still fourth in the same category against passing offense, so with Desmond Ridder at the helm, that’s an avenue the Falcons will want to avoid.
Overall, we’ve seen New York’s defense take a step back in recent weeks due perhaps in part to fatigue after spending so much time on the field in the majority of games due to the team’s offensive ineptitude. One could also chalk it up to a morale issue; it’s hard to keep putting forth an elite effort when the offense can’t consistently even put together double-digit points and keep you in the game.
In a contest where Atlanta should be ahead and running the ball plenty, expect Robinson to have his fair share of success, including at least one trip to the end zone.
Younghoe Koo Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-135)
As always with kicker props, this is a situational pick, but it doesn’t hurt that Koo is kicking the ball extremely well this season. He’s drilled 22 of his 23 attempts so far, including all three of his attempts beyond the 50 yard line, so he’s been extremely consistent and nothing is out of his range.
We’re also getting a pretty good chance to buy low on Koo. He’s been below this number in both of his past two contests, but he was above in each of the previous three, so we’re definitely in a bit of a trough.
As for the matchup, expect the Falcons to settle for some field goals. They should be able to run the ball well and get down the field, but when the field shortens up they’ll be plagued by Ridder’s ineffectiveness. Atlanta is 18th in the NFL in offensive red zone touchdown conversion rate with a figure just a few ticks above 50%, while the Jets rank sixth on the other side of the ball. Plenty of drives should stall out, giving Koo the opportunity to convert- which he’s done quite reliably this season.
Quincy Williams Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists
He may not have the name recognition of his brother and teammate Quinnen, but Quincy Williams is having a breakout season for the ages. His career best PFF season-long defense grade throughout his first four campaigns was the paltry 55.2 he put up last year, but he’s taken an enormous step forward this year and has earned a score of 84.9, driven in large part by becoming one of the league’s very best coverage linebackers.
On the season, he’s averaging 8.7 combined tackles and assists per game, so to go under this number, he’d have to have a game that would be well below his average level of productivity. Of course, that’s far from impossible, but why should this game be a quieter performance than usual? There’s no good answer to that- it shouldn’t be.
As we’ve discussed, the Falcons should be running in this game. We’ve seen Quincy have some of his most productive games against run-first teams like the Eagles, Giants, and Broncos, which should come as no surprise; off-ball linebackers are extremely involved in the pursuit of stopping the run. Williams is no exception; his average depth of tackle in the run game is an impressive two yards beyond the line of scrimmage, meaning that he is consistently one of the first players to the ball on rushing plays.
Even if the Falcons go to the air, it should be in the short field due to the limits of running offense through Ridder, and we’ve already discussed Williams’s coverage prowess this year. That’s his bread and butter, so if Ridder leans on quick hits to Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and even Drake London, Quincy could still be extremely involved in this one.
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