Florida State Seminoles vs LSU Tigers Odds, Picks, Predictions (9/4/22)

The Seminoles have had four straight losing seasons, something that hasn’t happened in almost 50 years. But Mike Norvell returns plenty of production, and they should reach bowl eligibility this season.

They’ll take on a Tigers team going through a complete rebuild. But I’m not sure there is a better coach to take that rebuild on than Brian Kelly.

But is it too early to take LSU seriously?

Read on for our Florida State Seminoles vs LSU Tigers odds, picks, and predictions.

Florida State Seminoles vs LSU Tigers

This line feels mispriced. Why are the Tigers laying over a field goal with this lack of returning production? Some of the projection systems make the Seminoles only two-point dogs, others make the ‘Noles favorites.

But it’s hard to trust an ACC offense against an SEC defense. But looking at what the Tigers did last year and what they’re dealing with this year, I’m very skeptical.

This game deserves a little more analysis.

The under is taking the sharp money, moving two points down from the opener and getting close to hitting the key number of 49.

Florida State Seminoles vs LSU Tigers Prediction & Pick

Mike Norvell should have the most consistent offense he’s had in Tallahassee. Eight offensive starters return, including quarterback Jordan Travis. With Travis under center, the Seminoles went 5-3 last season. The three losses came by an average of five points and were against Clemson, Florida, and Notre Dame.

The returning offensive line production will be big. Four starters return with a combined 101 career starts. The Seminoles were explosive on offense last season, but expect improvements on the ground and in Standard Downs.

But can Florida State score on an SEC defense?

LSU returns just five defensive starters and only three of their top seven tacklers. They’re weak at linebacker, but should be okay in the secondary and right up front.

The offense is a bigger issue. Jayden Daniels was a mess at Arizona State, and the offensive line is having to replace plenty of production. His top two running backs are gone, too.

The best part of this LSU offense is the wide receiving corps. The top five wideouts from last season return, including top wideout Keyshon Boutte, who still led the team in receptions despite missing seven games last season.

Despite the sharp money coming in on the under, I’m pretty interested in the over. With the number dropping below 50, I think there’s enough explosiveness between the two units to put up some points.

Florida State Seminoles vs LSU Tigers Key Matchups

Key Matchup No. 1: Jayden Daniels vs Florida State’s Secondary

The strength of the Florida State defense is the secondary. Especially Jammie Robinson, who led the team in tackles while picking up three PBUs and four interceptions. He’s an athlete that can play all over the field and earned First-Team All-ACC honors last season.

FSU S/NB Jammie Robinson will be a riser this fall on Draft boards… 11 starts at FSU last season after coming over from South Carolina.

Really good athlete/temperament to play top down or lock down the slot

One of the stronger safety tandems in ACC with Akeem Dent pic.twitter.com/JGPPjgiHT9

— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) July 10, 2022

But this is a fairly young unit that wasn’t overwhelming in a statistical sense last season. How they perform may tell us a lot about what will happen in Tallahassee this year.

Jayden Daniels needs to prove he can be effective with coach Kelly and a solid receiving core. If he can’t make any jump – and it’s tough to make the jump from the Pac-12 to the SEC – the Tigers are in for a long season.