Florida State vs. Florida: Prediction & Odds (11/25/23)

Florida State faces Florida in a rivalry game on Saturday (11/25/23). In this article, find the latest betting odds for the game and a full preview of the matchup. In addition, find our Florida State vs. Florida best bet which is the Florida Moneyline.

Florida State vs. Florida Prediction

Florida State came away with a 58-13 win after an early scare against North Alabama last week. But they had a much bigger loss with Jordan Travis breaking his ankle in devastating fashion. The Seminoles still control their own destiny this season with the ACC Championship awaiting them next week, but first they travel to Gainesville to face Florida.

With Travis out for the year, Florida State will turn to Tate Rodemaker, a junior quarterback who made one career start back in 2020. While he’s inexperienced, it will help that the Noles have a ton of skill position talented including a tremendous wide receiver tandem in Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson.

Unfortunately, Florida also lost its starting quarterback as Graham Mertz suffered a broken collarbone. Redshirt freshman Max Brown will replace Mertz, and with just 12 career passing attempts, it’s tough to know what to expect. He completed 4 of 5 passes for 56 yards in relief on Mertz last week, adding 42 rushing yards.

Brown’s dual-threat ability pairs nicely with an awesome backfield duo in Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne. Billy Napier’s offense focuses on the run with a heavy dose of play action passing, generating easy completions for the quarterback. Florida State has struggled against the run at times this year, so that should work nicely.

There’s a ton of variance in this game with two unproven backup quarterbacks, but Florida will be highly motivated to pull off the upsets as they need one more win to reach bowl eligibility. I lean towards them covering the 6.5-point spread, but given all the uncertainty here, let’s shoot for some upside and take them on the Moneyline.

Florida State vs. Florida Prediction: Florida ML

Florida State vs. Florida Best Odds

The spread for this game on the look ahead was 9.5 points in favor of Florida State with an over/under of 50.5 points. Those numbers shifted to a spread of 6.5 and a total of 49.5 since the quarterback injuries on either side. With those numbers, we get an implied score of around 28-21 in favor of the Seminoles.

Florida State vs. Florida Key Matchups

When the Gators play host to the Seminoles on Saturday, we’ll be watching two backup quarterbacks see starting action. With those backups presenting plenty of uncertainty, let’s break down how these teams’ skill position players can boost the production of their young quarterbacks.

Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson vs. Florida’s Cornerbacks

While it’s tough to know what to expect from Tate Rodemaker as a passer, we do know he has two excellent wide receivers. Keon Coleman is a likely first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft while Johnny Wilson is an incredibly dynamic receiver in his own right. Coleman and Wilson have combined for over 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.

Florida will struggle to contain these two wideouts as thy rank 119th in passing EPA/play allowed. Pass defense has been an issue for the Gators all year as they rank 116th in coverage per PFF and their solid pass rush hasn’t been enough to overcome a weak secondary. Look for Rodemaker to hit Coleman and Wilson for some big plays here.

Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne vs. Florida State’s Run Defense

Max Brown’s inexperience as a passer will lead to an even more run heavy approach for a Florida team that already heavily relies on its rushing attack. Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne have combined for 1,420 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns to lead a top 30 rushing attack by EPA/play.

After allowing these two running backs to combine for over 200 yards and two touchdowns last year, the Seminoles will need to have a strong game plan for this backfield. Florida State’s run defense has been a weakness this season as they rank just 74th in rushing EPA/play allowed, so I expect Johnson and Etienne to have success.

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I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.

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