Florida vs. Auburn Predictions, Picks, NCAAB Odds (12/28/22)

Auburn and Florida both enter SEC play with plenty to prove as the Tigers look to reclaim their spot as one of the top teams in the conference while the Gators aim to build what would be an unexpected NCAA Tournament case. Pressure will be on Auburn to take care of business at home against a Florida team that pulled off an upset the last time these two met in February.

Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for Wednesday’s matchup in Auburn.

Florida vs. Auburn Odds

Auburn enters as a 6-point home favorite, with the over/under set at 142.5 points.

The Tigers have played only four games in the last 25 days, so there could be a rust factor here, but Florida is dealing with pretty much the same situation. To this point, Auburn has clearly looked like the better team. The offense impressed against Washington last time out, and the defense has been strong for Bruce Pearl’s team. Do the Tigers have enough in the tank offensively to cover -6?

Florida vs. Auburn Prediction & Pick

Auburn isn’t necessarily loaded with talent, but the Tigers are a well-coached, defensive-minded team that should fare well in SEC play. Florida, on the other hand, hasn’t shined in any particular area. The transfer-heavy Gators have struggled to coalesce around standout forward Colin Castleton, playing inconsistent defense and posting some uninspiring results so far.

Florida’s best win to this point came against Florida State, and poor offensive showings against UConn, West Virginia, and Oklahoma indicate the Gators’ offense still has a long way to go as it struggles to find legitimate scoring options in the backcourt.

Auburn should be able to keep Florida’s offense quiet and win pretty comfortably at home. Maybe the story will be different when these two meet again in Gainesville in about a month, but Auburn -6 is the better pick today.

Florida vs. Auburn Key Matchups

Auburn isn’t as talented as it was last season with Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler off to the NBA, but Bruce Pearl still has his team in line to reach the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers’ defense has been strong so far this season, coming in 12th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, and the offense has started to come around a bit this month.

Like last season, guard play is still questionable. This is a frontcourt-heavy team, with transfer Johni Broome helping to make Auburn one of the best shot-blocking teams in the nation. The Tigers still lack a true No. 1 scorer. Wendell Green Jr.’s struggles of late don’t give the impression that he’s ready to take on that role. With that being said, it didn’t hurt them against a Washington team that did have a true No. 1 scorer and isn’t likely to be an issue against a Florida team that doesn’t have a standout guard of its own.

I’m becoming more confident in Auburn’s offense after some solid showings lately, including a great performance by Jaylin Williams against the Huskies. Florida has a big-time player in its frontcourt in Colin Castleton. The super-senior is averaging 15.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game as the leader of the team.

Florida generally has the size to compete with Auburn, and the Gators clearly have the shooting advantage – the Tigers are one of the nation’s worst three-point shooting teams at 30.2 percent. Even so, this Gators team is 7-5 for a reason. Florida’s defense is pretty average by SEC standards, and its backcourt is not good enough to outshine Auburn’s. A transfer-heavy backcourt has seen struggles by Kyle Lofton and Trey Bonham, with Will Richard the only one of the trio shooting efficiently so far.

It’s possible Florida puts it all together late in the season with so many transfers and a new coach in Todd Golden, but Auburn looks like it has its act together already.