On Saturday (10/7/23), Fresno State faces Wyoming in a Mountain West battle. In this article, find a breakdown of the latest betting odds and a full preview of the game. In addition, find our best bet which is Wyoming +6.
Fresno State Bulldogs Vs. Wyoming Cowboys Prediction & Best Bet
Fresno State is off to a tremendous start to the season with a 5-0 record. As a result, they currently rank 24th in the AP Top 25, and their matchup this week against Wyoming will be nationally televised on FOX. However, I believe it’s time to fade this Fresno State team.
Let’s take a look at who they’ve beaten to this point. Purdue might have the worst defense in the Big Ten. Arizona State used three different quarterbacks and had eight turnovers. Kent State is power rated as the worst team in the MAC. And to top it off, Fresno State needed overtime to beat Eastern Washington.
Wyoming, meanwhile, has played a much tougher schedule. A Week 1 win over Texas Tech is better than any win Fresno State has to this point, while Wyoming hung tough for three quarters against Texas, who I have power rated as the best team in the country – that game was 10-10 after three quarters.
Fresno State’s offense has a lot of issues hiding under the surface. They can’t run the ball as they rank 121st in rushing success rate, and the big plays have been noticeably lacking. That’s problematic against a Wyoming defense that ranks top 15 in limiting explosiveness.
Finally, Wyoming has a big kicking advantage, which could make all the difference in what’s expected to be a low scoring slug fest. Wyoming’s John Hoyland has a career 86.9% rate on field goals, including 8-8 and 2-2 from 50+ yards this season. He’s also perfect on 97 career extra point attempts. Fresno State’s Dylan Lynch has made just 11 of 16 attempts this year (68.8%).
Craig Bohl is 18-11 ATS (62%) as a home underdog in his career, including that outright upset of Texas Tech in Week 1. Weird things happen in Laramie, and while Fresno State might be the best team in the Mountain West, a loss here wouldn’t be shocking. I’m taking the points with the home dog and putting Wyoming’s Moneyline in my Round Robin.
Fresno State Bulldogs Vs. Wyoming Cowboys Prediction & Best Bet: Wyoming +6
Fresno State Bulldogs Vs. Wyoming Cowboys Betting Odds
Oct. 07, 7:00 PM Moneyline Odds updated October 7th, 2023, at 10:17 pm
FRES @ WYO
Oct. 07, 7:00 PM
Odds updated October 7th, 2023, at 10:17 pm
The Fresno State Bulldogs currently sit as 6-point road favorites here, although some books are pricing it at 6.5. You can wait to see if this number hits 7, as that’s one of the most key football numbers. The total sits at a paltry 44.5 points as the books are expecting this to be a low-scoring affair.
Fresno State Bulldogs Vs. Wyoming Cowboys Key Matchups
In this exciting Mountain West game, there are some fascinating individual matchups that will have a huge impact on the final result. Let’s break down some of those key matchups.
Mikey Keene Vs. Wyoming’s Pass Defense
Mikey Keene has started this season strong with 13 touchdowns to just four interceptions, and Fresno State ranks 22nd in passing success rate. Fresno State’s run game has been mostly nonexistent, but it hasn’t hurt Keene too much. Still, he’s coming off one of his worst games with two interceptions despite just a 5.2-yard aDOT against Nevada.
Wyoming’s pass defense has been solid across the board, and they’re especially good at preventing big plays – they’re 25th in explosiveness allowed and 33rd against the pass. Keene can have some success in the short and intermediate areas of the field, but Wyoming will be able to limit the big plays in the Fresno State passing offense.
Mikey Keene to Erik Brooks for the first Bulldogs touchdown of the season.
— Sidelines – FresnoState (@SSN_FresnoState) September 2, 2023
Harrison Waylee Vs. Fresno State’s Run Defense
Wyoming’s offense revolves around the run, and they have an excellent running back in Harrison Waylee leading the way. Waylee has 457 rushing yards and three touchdowns through three games, and he’s averaging 8.6 yards per carry. Behind an offensive line that’s adept at opening holes, Waylee is capable of turning a small gap into a huge gain.
Fresno State’s run defense has been solid this season – they rank top 30 in rushing success rate and EPA allowed – but they rank just 94th in tackling per PFF. That’s a problem against Waylee, who forced a whopping 12 missed tackles last week. If Waylee can have a big game, Wyoming can pull off the outright upset.
College Football’s Fastest Five of the Week:
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) September 25, 2023