Frisco Bowl Boise State Vs. North Texas Odds, Picks, Predictions (12/17/22)

Talk about a turnaround for the Boise State Broncos. Starting out rough with one of the most anemic offenses possible, they turned it around with a quarterback change that led them to the MWC Championship. Their defense remained stout throughout the season and played a major role in the Broncos success. Now they get a high-powered North Texas offense to try and stop. Can the Broncos avoid the upset?

Boise State Vs. North Texas Odds

Oddsmakers think so as they opened the Broncos as a -5.5 favorite. They severely estimated their chance of dominating this time out with bettors hammering the Broncos up to -10.5 as of writing. Their defense is more than capable of shutting down the Mean Green while the Broncos offense has slowly improved over the course of the season as they took on a new identity.

As for the total, this is in direct correlation to the line movement of the spread as this is expected to have an offensive performance on both ends. With Boise expected to have little resistance moving it down the field, it will come down to if North Texas can crack the Broncos defense. Oddsmakers opened this total at 54.5 with bettors hammering the over up to as high as 59.5 in some shops.

Boise State Vs. North Texas Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Boise State 1H -6

After the cancellation of the Arizona bowl last season, and electing not to play in 2020, Boise State’s bowl win is long overdue with a fantastic chance to pull it off this year. While the full game spread is too high for my liking after passing through the key number of 10, I will take the first half number at -6.5 or lower to eliminate second half bowl variance.

The key metric to watch and brunt of the handicap comes at the ability of the Broncos to limit the pass attack. North Texas built their success of the season on their ability to air it out at an above average rate, ranking top-50 in Off Pass Success. 

The offense operated as a boom or bust type of design, relying on their 8th ranked Off Pass Explosiveness to sustain drives down the field. Their quarterback Austin Aune has already committed to playing in this game before declaring for the draft, a lethal gunslinger who finished the season with 3,309 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.

He will have his hands full in this one as he now goes against one of the most efficient pass defenses in football. While their offense struggled throughout the season, it was the Broncos defense that helped them stay afloat. Boise State’s pass defense ranks first in Def Pass Success. If they can get pressure to the backfield and rattle Aune, then they can limit their weakness of giving up explosive pass plays.

Boise State Vs. North Texas Key Matchups

Can Taylen Green and George Holani find success against the Mean Green defense? How will the Boise defense overcome their injuries?

Boise scoring production vs North Texas finishing drives defense

While the defense is expected to halt the Mean Green offensive production throughout the course of the game, it will be up to the Boise State offense to pull away early for our ticket to cash. 

Taylen Green stepping in for the hobbled Hank Bachmeier turned their season around by bringing in a more dynamic offense to the table. While still averaging around middle of the rank passing metrics as a unit, Green proved to be a productive boost with his conservative arm.

Should Holani be good to go from his injury, he will provide an immediate boost in scoring production as the clear number one running back. Boise will be set up for scoring success should they get past the 40-yard line with North Texas ranking near bottom of the barrel in Def Finishing Drives.

Can Boise overcome their injuries?

With multiple defensive players going down in their last two games, Boise is now facing injury uncertainty at all three levels of their defense with injuries at defensive tackle, linebacker, and the nickel position. This is worth monitoring as they will need all hands on deck to limit the explosive pass attack the Mean Green provide.

They also are facing uncertainty with George Holani at running back, but he is rumored to give it a go after icing his shoulder in the second half last game out.

Verdict

With an elite pass defense capable of limiting the North Texas offense, take the beaten-up Broncos to cover the first half at -6.5 or less to limit second half bowl variance.