Georgia Southern Vs. Buffalo Predictions, Picks, Camellia Bowl Odds (12/27/22)

It’s not one the prettiest games on paper, but it is definitely one of the more intriguing matchups of the day to kick off a jam-packed Tuesday that features four bowl games. Buffalo squeaks in by the skin of their teeth with a one-point win over Akron to end the season and are now rewarded with going against their former quarterback of four years. Does Kyle Vantrease get his “revenge” against his former team?

Georgia Southern Vs. Buffalo Odds

Oddsmakers believe so as they opened the Eagles as a -3 favorite. Bettors are in agreement, taking the Eagles up to as high as -4 in some shops. This sets up nicely for the Eagles offense as their quarterback has put together a masterful performance this season and gets the opportunity to cap it off against his former team. The Bulls defense has revolved around their ability to generate turnovers, an area that GASO excels in protecting against.

As for the total, oddsmakers believe points will be scored in a flash as they opened the total at 62.5. Bettors are in agreement, hammering the over up to as high as 66.5 as of writing. This actually comes as a surprise as both defenses have sizable advantages over each other’s offenses and Buffalo may be without two key running backs after missing the season finale due to injury.

Georgia Southern Vs. Buffalo Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Wait on a Georgia Southern -3

With Buffalo’s offense fielding question marks in the backfield and Georgia Southern being able to negate Buffalo’s defensive strengths, I will back Georgia Southern on the spread. While initially missing out on the opener, I will wait to see if this number dips down before kickoff or hope to get the key number of -3 early in the game. Key numbers are more important than ever during Bowl season as unpredictability is knocking on the door all game.

Georgia Southern is sneakily one of the better overall offenses in the nation and are more than capable of burning you in multiple ways. They were gift wrapped quarterback Kyle Vantrease through the transfer portal who has been a man possessed this season. So far, he has thrown for an unreal 3,901 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.

Behind his exceptional level of play, Georgia Southern has amassed an Off Pass Success Rate of 19th in the nation. They are a very pass heavy unit, opting to throw at 61% of the time which is good for top-5 in the nation. They rely more on efficiency than explosiveness, ranking near dead last on converting the big play.

They are presented another opportunity to excel through the air as Buffalo ranks well below average at defending the pass. As of writing, the Bulls rank 95th in Def Pass Success Rate. A brunt of their success has been their ability to generate Def Havoc, ranking number one in the nation. The issue with that is they now get a Georgia Southern offense who excels at limiting their own Havoc, being one of the best at taking care of the ball and sustaining drives down the field.

Georgia Southern Vs. Buffalo Key Matchups

Can the Eagle’s defense limit the Bulls offensive attack?

Buffalo pass attack vs Georgia Southern defense

While Georgia Southern’s offense has been great through the season, their defense has lacked mightily in comparison to the offense’s success. Their Def Rush ranks near dead last in Success Rate while their Def Pass is somewhat better at slightly below average.

Even with Buffalo potentially missing two of their productive running backs, not all is lost as they still field a respectable pass attack. This is an area of concern for our Georgia Southern tickets Buffalo will be given clean looks all game to sustain drives down the field.

With that said, not all hope is lost as the key metric to watch comes when Buffalo’s offense gets past the 40. This is when the Eagles get an opportunity to flip the script as they rank above average in Def Finishing Drives. If GASO can minimize the Bulls scoring opportunities, then that gives their offense more ample opportunities to outpace them in scoring.

Verdict

With Georgia Southern’s offense being able to exploit the Buffalo defense, as well as limit the Bulls offensive success in the red zone, I will take the Eagles at no higher than -3. While currently sitting as high as -4, I will keep an eye on the movement with hopes to grab it live early should it dip.