Georgia Tech Vs. North Carolina: Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/19/22)

While it may seem impossible, the North Carolina Tar Heels still have a puncher’s chance at making the playoffs. In order for that to happen they will need to clobber everyone in their path while needing some key losses from others elsewhere. Next up for the Tar Heels? Georgia Tech.

Georgia Tech Vs. North Carolina Odds

A clobbering just may be in store for the Heels as they come into this game as a near three touchdown favorite. This is in large part of Georgia Tech’s production taking a nosedive, recently losing to Miami 35-14 after giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter.

As for the total, it has stayed pretty firm at the opener of 63.5 as of writing. Taking some dips to 63 throughout the week, bettors are anticipating a high scoring affair due to UNC’s scoring ability while coupling it with one of the worst defenses in the league.

Georgia Tech Vs. North Carolina Prediction & Pick

The Pick: North Carolina -20.5

As previously mentioned, if UNC wants any shot at making the playoffs, then they are going to have to steam roll everyone in their path. They also need ND to beat USC and for TCU to lose but I digress.

As for this game, the Tar Heels should have no issue with scoring as UNC’s offense is as high powered as they come behind the elite quarterback play of Drake Maye. Maye is in the middle of a Heisman campaign with a stat line of 3,412 yards, 34 touchdowns, and three interceptions. He’s also the team’s leading rusher with another 584 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

For UNC to cover a large spread, they will need to capitalize on every possession as the defense doesn’t do them many favors. Lucky for the defense, the Georgia Tech offense is just nearly as bad if not worse.

Other than Off Explosiveness, Georgia Tech ranks near dead last in every other major offensive metric. This includes Off Success Rate, Havoc, and Finishing Drives. All lower than the UNC defense which is absurd.

Georgia Tech Vs. North Carolina Key Matchups

Will UNC’s defense finally be able to stop an opposing offense? How will Georgia Tech’s secondary handle Drake Maye?

UNC’s secondary vs Georgia Tech’s offense

While UNC’s offense is as elite as it gets, their defense is the exact opposite. Mainly the middle level, especially at the secondary while defending the pass.

While they do a good job at limiting explosiveness, they struggle to limit consistent gains that result in points. UNC’s defense in pass defense ranks 76th in Def Success Rate and 123rd in Standard Down Success Rate. Simply brutal at limiting down field success from opposing offenses.

They get a chance to turn it around against a very weak Georgia Tech offense, a unit that somehow ranks worse than UNC’s defense across the board behind anemic play and stalled out drives. Georgia Tech ranks 128th or worse in Standard Downs Success and PPA.

Drake Maye vs Georgia Tech’s red zone defense

If you dig deep enough into my Twitter for this season, then you would see that I made a tweet about my disdain about Maye getting the starting nod. Hand up, I was wrong. I have been wrong before, and I will be wrong a million times again, but that may have been my worst sports take ever.

Simply put, Maye is one of the best quarterbacks in football and has a prime opportunity to make a late claim for the Heisman. That is if he can find success once the North Carolina offense gets past the 40.

While one of the worst defenses per Def Success Rate, Georgia Tech actually does a good job at limiting opponents ability to put quality points on the board once they get in scoring position. They rank 26th in Def Finishing Drives and will need to find every ounce of success that they can find as UNC is one of the best units in Finishing Drives position.

Verdict

While Georgia Tech’s ability to limit opposing offenses scoring opportunities is worth monitoring, I see little reason for Drake Maye and company to not steamroll the Yellow Jackets. Take UNC at -21 or better in what will be a statement offensive performance en-route to the ACC Championship.