New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (10/15/23)

The New York Giants face the Buffalo Bills in Sunday Night Football (10/15/23). Get Giants vs. Bills First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Sunday night’s game.

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New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Giants vs. Bills game?

Stefon Diggs First TD (+490 FD) 

The Giants have never scored the first touchdown in any game this season because they are terrible on both sides of the ball. They rank 31st in percentage of drives ending in an offensive score and 30th in percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive score. Completely fading New York will be wise throughout the remainder of the year. 

Stefon Diggs has scored Buffalo’s first touchdown in two of five games, and he’s easily Josh Allen’s favorite target. Diggs paces the Bills in targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, red zone targets, red zone receptions, and red zone receiving touchdowns. Overall, Diggs owns the most touchdown equity of any Bill, and the Giants are tied for the fourth most receiving touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. 

Diggs needs to score first about 17 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.

Gabe Davis First TD (+900 FD) 

Gabe Davis has also scored Buffalo’s first touchdown in two of five games, and he’s the clear second option in this offense. Davis is second on the team in targets, receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns. He’s scored a touchdown in four straight games now and leads the NFL in average depth of target (min. 25 targets), which bodes well for him considering New York’s defense is tied for the second most explosive plays allowed. 

Davis is the favorite to score first outside of Diggs, so snagging +900 is incredible. He must score first about 10 percent of the time based on the odds.

Bills Defense First TD (+3100 FD)

Buffalo’s defense leads the NFL in both turnovers forced and sacks, so their ability to create chaos is unmatched at the moment. New York fields one of the worst offensive lines in the league, so backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor will be on the run for the majority of snaps, which increases turnover chances. Plus, Taylor hasn’t been a consistent starter since 2017, and he only owns 10 starts across the last 6 seasons. Therefore, his lack of game reps may cloud his field vision and cause him to miss a lurking defender ready to return an interception for a touchdown. 

Given New York’s inept offense and Buffalo’s disruptive defense, it’s worth taking a flier on Bills defense to score first. The unit must score first about 3 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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