New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Player Props & Picks (10/15/23)

The New York Giants battle the Buffalo Bills in Sunday Night Football (10/15/23). Get Giants vs. Bills player prop best bets below, as well as a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks

Which players will crush their props in the Giants vs. Bills game?

Gabe Davis Anytime TD (+165 Caesars)

Gabe Davis is second on the Bills in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. If it’s not Stefon Diggs, then Josh Allen has been seeking Davis. The dangerous deep threat has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games now, and he meets an abysmal Giants defense. 

New York is tied for the second most explosive plays allowed and tied for the seventh most passing explosive plays allowed. The Giants also rank 30th in opponent dropback expected points added per play, 29th in opponent dropback success rate, 30th in percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive score, and are tied for the fourth most touchdowns given up to wide receivers. 

Davis likely feasts against New York and completely exposes their back-end coverage. He needs to score here about 37 percent of the time based on the odds.

Gabe Davis Longest Reception Over 21.5 Yards (-110 DK)

Speaking of Davis thriving, his longest reception prop also represents a best bet for this game. As stated above, New York’s secondary is extremely vulnerable to opposing passing offenses, especially one as lethal as Buffalo’s. Davis has extreme big play potential; he leads the NFL in average depth of target (min. 25 targets). 

The following depicts Davis’ longest reception in every game so far starting week one:

  • 26 yards
  • 40 yards
  • 35 yards
  • 34 yards
  • 29 yards

He’s comfortably cleared this line in every game, and the matchup against New York is incredible. It would be completely unsurprising if Davis hit the over in the first drive – that’s how befuddling the line is to me.

Stefon Diggs First Touchdown (+490 FD) & Gabe Davis First Touchdown (+900 FD)

To cap off completely fading New York’s secondary, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis first touchdown are the final best bets. Diggs easily leads Buffalo in red zone targets and inside the ten-yard-line targets while narrowly pacing them in receiving touchdowns (Davis is one behind in receiving touchdowns). 

The Giants are one of two teams (Jets) to never score the first touchdown this season, and that shouldn’t change here. The Bills are elite on both ends, while the Giants are putrid all-around. Diggs is tied with Davis for Buffalo team first touchdowns at two, so they are both dominating the first touchdown results. Look for one of these two to find the end zone first.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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