On Sunday (10/15/23), we’ll watch the New York Giants face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football. In this article, find a full preview of the matchup and the latest betting odds. In addition, find our best bet which is the Giants’ team total under 14.5.
New York Giants Vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
The Giants are off to a very disappointing 1-4 start to the season, and they needed a massive comeback from a 21-point second half deficit to beat the Cardinals for their lone win. After making the playoffs last season, the Giants’ magic has been lost, especially on offense.
Brian Daboll’s coaching hasn’t been enough to overcome the lack of talent on this roster as the Giants rank dead last in offensive DVOA. They’ve only had one game all season where they’ve been over 10 offensive points – they had a pick six against the Dolphins last week to push to 16 points.
Buffalo’s defense represents another uphill battle, especially with the injuries piling up for Big Blue. Four of the five starting offensive linemen are on the injury report – left tackle Andrew Thomas and center John Michael Schmitz have been ruled out. Daniel Jones is out with a neck injury while Saquon Barkley’s status is very much in doubt.
The Bills rank fifth in defensive DVOA, and they’ve allowed just 16 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NFL. The Giants’ broken offensive line that ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate allowed will have to compete with an outstanding pass rush. Buffalo ranks third in pressure rate despite blitzing at the lowest rate in the NFL.
The Giants’ team total is priced at 14.5 on BetMGM with -140 juice to the under. Using this handy implied probability calculator, we can see that -140 has an implied probability of 58.33%. We’re looking for this bet to hit at a higher rate than that for the juice to be worth the squeeze, and I believe that’s the case here.
Some sportsbooks have the Giants’ team total set at 13.5 or 14 points, and you won’t have to drink as much juice on those numbers, but 14 is a fairly key number here. I’d recommend paying the -140 for the under 14.5 – I see it being an outcome much likelier than the 58.33% implied probability.
New York Giants Vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction: Giants Under 14.5 Points
New York Giants Vs. Buffalo Bills Best Odds
The spread for this game has only grown since the start of the season as the Giants have completely fallen apart. The Bills are priced as 15-point home favorites with an over/under of 44 points. Keep an eye on the weather forecast when it pertains to the total – there could be wind and rain in Orchard Park on Sunday night.
New York Giants Vs. Buffalo Bills Key Injuries
The Giants’ injury situation has gone from bad to worse, and they’ll be without multiple starters on both sides of the ball on Sunday. The offensive line continues to have a new starting group seemingly every week due to injuries. The Bills have been luckier with injuries, but cornerback Tre’Davious White is out for the year while linebacker Matt Milano hit the IR this week.
New York Giants Vs. Buffalo Bills Key Matchups
This matchup is incredibly lopsided on paper, and the 15-point spread is well justified. Let’s dive into why it will be such an uphill battle for Tyrod Taylor on Sunday night.
Tyrod Taylor Vs. Bills’ Pass Defense
With Daniel Jones out due to a neck injury, Tyrod Taylor will take over as the starter. The former Bills quarterback is a serviceable backup, but it’s difficult to imagine him having much success in this matchup. He was under pressure on 62.5% of his dropbacks against the Dolphins last week despite being blitzed at a 25% rate.
Now, Taylor faces an outstanding Bills pass rush that blitzes at the lowest rate in the league and still gets pressure at the third-highest rate. The Bills had 23 pressures and seven sacks against Jacksonville last week, and that was without Gregory Rousseau and with Von Miller only playing 14 snaps in his return from the ACL injury.
The Bills lost top cornerback Tre’Davious White for the season with an Achilles injury, but they still have plenty of back end talent. Former first round cornerback Kaiir Elam is ready for the spotlight while Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde remain one of the best safety duos in the NFL.
Taylor will likely be facing this defense without running back Saquon Barkley and tight end Darren Waller, the team’s two best skill position talents, as well as multiple starters on the offensive line. This offense is a complete disaster right now, and while Daboll showed his coaching prowess last year, even he can’t overcome this.