New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills kicks off this Sunday at 8:25pm EST in Buffalo New York as a home game for the Bills. The Giants are currently a +15.5 underdog and +800 on the moneyline while the total is set at 44.5. Expect a dominant offensive display from the Bills off the backs of Josh Allen and James Cook, giving value for a same game parlay in this New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills matchup.
New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills Same Game Parlay Picks
With each passing game it’s becoming more apparent that the New York Giants may be the worst team in the NFL. DVOA tends to agree, pegging them 32nd in the league overall. They now have to figure out a way to slow down the Bills without their own starting quarterback, slotting in Tyrod Taylor for Daniel Jones. Their hopes look bleak, shaping this up to be a dominant Bills performance as they remind the league that they are a serious Super Bowl contender.
Leg 1: Bills Team Total Over 29.5
It’s tough to put too much stock into the Bills London performance as players have made it widely known that they despise the long travel. Their opponent also got the benefit of just staying overseas, having a massive rest advantage which eventually led to a win on their end.
Throwing that game aside, the Bills still remain to be one of the best teams in the league and have massive advantages in nearly every advanced category against the Giants. Especially when they have the ball, ranking third overall in both Off DVOA and Off EPA. That’s a massive difference against the Giants in the same categories, a defense that ranks 27th in Def DVOA and 30th in Def EPA.
Better yet for the Bills chances to clear this team total over, their offense should garner an uptick in possessions as their defense is in position to get the Giants offense off the field early and often. The Giants offensive line protection is practically non-existent as they rank dead last in Adjusted Line Yards and Sack Rate, allowing the Bills to generate Pressure with ease from their front four while they drop back the rest in coverage.
Leg 2: Bills to Win Every Quarter
I normally stay away from exotic props like this, but I couldn’t pass up a juicy leg as it ties directly in with my belief that the Bills will dominate this game from start to finish. They have an advantage early on as they can maintain their game plan on offense, yet this may potentially get dicey late in the fourth quarter as they run a conservative game plan to bleed the clock with their backups. Disclaimer, I am not certain how this will grade should one of the quarters end up in a tie as this prop was not a three-way market. Play at your own risk.
Leg 3: James Cook Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
An aspect of the Bills offense that has been missing over the past couple of years has been a stable ground game. They may have found an answer to this aspect that has eluded them as James Cook has quickly carved out a role in the backfield.
— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2022
The Bills currently rank 11th in Rush DVOA, fourth in Rush EPA, and fourth in Rush Success Rate. This puts Cook in a good position to churn out yards at a time against a Giants rush defense that ranks near dead last in the same defensive categories, as well as receiving more attempts late in the game as they hold on to a massive lead as the spread implies.
Leg 4: Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interception
Like the London game, the Bills season opener matchup against the Jets have served as an outlier as Josh Allen has done a much better job of taking care of the ball. Granted he has tacked on another two interceptions since week one, but now gets the benefit of taking on a weak Giants secondary while under minimal pressure. With a clean pocket should come better decision making and less pressure induced throws, as well as losing out some pass attempts to a heavier dose of the run late in the contest.
Same Game Parlay Card For New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills
Bills TT o29.5
Bills to Win Every Quarter
James Cook o58.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen u0.5 Interception
Full SGP Odds: +1000 ($10 wins $100.00)